Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well.
I am going to list off my top ten players of each position. Let me correct myself, top ten fantasy players of each position. These takes should not be hot. Separate yourself from reality and join me in this [INSERT LEAGUE NAME HERE] Fantasy. In real life I would adjust my order, but this isn’t real, nothing is real, birds aren’t real. Here, we discuss the Top Ten Fantasy Wide Receivers, and Top Five Rookie Wide Receivers.
Important things for being a top fantasy wide receiver; targets, receptions, passing offense, good quarterback, yards, touchdowns, size. All pretty simple stuff right? How I thought of this is that there are some top end guys that age is not as big of a factor, because their two or three years on top will make up for the two or one year of bad or lessor fantasy production. A dynasty is three out of four years, so I took age under some consideration. The top five of the ten are universal, redraft league or dynasty, the last five maybe left out an older WR because of this being a dynasty league. Also, there are only 12 #1 WRs, as we have 12 teams. There are 32 NFL teams, so if you are a wide receiver #2 on your team, it is near impossible to make this top 10. That productivity is not sustainable over the course of a dynasty. But who knows, maybe the right offense and coach who loves offensive production will get a young #2 WR to sneak into the top ten.
Let’s look at some rankings as of now.
| Fantasy Pros | ESPN |
| 1. Michael Thomas – New Orleans | Michael Thomas – New Orleans |
| Davante Adams – Green Bay | DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona |
| Tyreek Hill – Kansas City | Davante Adams – Green Bay |
| DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona | Julio Jones – Atlanta |
| Kenny Golladay – Detroit | Tyreek Hill – Kansas City |
| Mike Evans – Tampa Bay | Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay |
| Amari Cooper – Dallas | Kenny Golladay – Detroit |
| Odell Beckham Jr. – Cleveland | Mike Evans – Tampa Bay |
| A.J. Brown – Tennessee | D.J. Moore – Carolina |
| Allen Robinson – Chicago | Amari Cooper – Dallas |
That is who the experts put where. While I don’t think they are too far off, order and reasoning are crucial in the top ten. How do you justify OBJ as a top ten when he doesn’t lead his team in catches? Kenny Golladay ahead of Mike Evans? Those things don’t add up. Let’s take a look at who I think are the top ten wide receivers in fantasy football for the year 2020.
#1 – Michael Thomas – New Orleans
This is an easy money pick. Experts have him 1, last year he was #1 by a lot, #6 in 2017 and 2018. He’s earned his spot as a top 3 wide receiver, this year he is the obvious #1. You’re on top till you’re not. Thomas keeps Brees for another year, 2020 should bode well for him. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders will take a few extra targets from Thomas, but the connection between Brees and Thomas is the best in the league.
#2 – DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona
To me it is crazy to think D-Hop is not the #2 fantasy wide receiver. Last three years, he has finished 1, 2, and 5 in points, 2, 4, and 5 in points per game for his position. He’s going to an offense that has a little more fire power, Larry Legend and Christian Kirk will probably lower his target rate, but his efficiency should go up. Think of the coaching. He’s going to an offensive coach, loves to chuck it. He’s going to a quarterback who is slightly less, but offensively the Cards are more than the Texans. D-Hop stays the #1, and his previous fantasy years are unmatched. No one was as productive as him. Well no one currently on an NFL team. And when D-Hop was top the wide receivers in scoring, he had three qbs throwing him the ball, so adjusting to a QB is nothing new to him.
#3 – Julio Jones – Atlanta
People think Julio fell off. He’s never left. Last three years, 4, 5, and 3 in scoring, 7, 5, and 4 in average points per game. Just worse than D-Hop. Team the same, Matty Ice loves tossing him the rock. Julio’s touchdown numbers are bad, but he still finishes on average as the #7, 5, and 4 receiver in points per game. He’s a constant force. Guaranteed to get you decent points. With the exceptions of Mikey T and D-Hop if you put a guy in front of Julio on your top ten, you are hoping that guy has a breakout season. Julio is just a lock as a top 5 at the end of the year. If you are going to take the #3 WR, Julio is your guy because without injury he’s at worst #5. Make the right pick, make the safe pick.
#4 – Mike Evans – Tampa Bay
This is my most controversial pick, but I know it’s the right one. Mike Evans, 6 seasons, 1,000 yards each season. Mike Evans 6’5. Randy Moss, first 6 seasons, 1,000 yards each. Randy Moss 6’4. Am I saying Mike Evans is the next Randy Moss? No, but I know Brady loved chucking it deep to an 30-plus year old Randy Moss. Mike Evans is entering his prime, he’ll be 27 this year. Brady obviously old, but Evans is a monster. I don’t think of Evans of being this high as an NFL wide receiver, he doesn’t have the wins, he hasn’t proven himself to be the best wide receiver, because somewhat wins plays into that as a player. But for fantasy he’s the guy. He’s the next best finishing 17, 8, and 12 in scoring, and 20, 10, and 3 in average. He’s more consistent and he’s slightly healthier than my next pick. But Evans targets will be less likely to go down because he’s a big target and deep threat. Godwin who came onto the scene last year, will have to compete with Howard and Gronk for intermediate routes. In fantasy, I think Mike Evans is the most slept on wide receiver. He should be a top guy, his numbers back it up, and his quarterback just got better.
#5 – Davante Adams – Green Bay
Adams biggest concern is that he gets some minor injuries because he gets all the targets in Green Bay. This offseason the Packers did absolutely nothing to help their #1 wide receiver. The good news for fantasy owners is that Aaron Rodgers is going to throw the ball to Adams or Jones. Those two players should creep up everyone’s draft board because the Packers are still a good team, but will absolutely have to abuse their two offensive weapons to be a playoff team. Adams has gone 14, 3, 24, but averaged per game 6, 1, 6. So when he’s healthy the guy is good. His problem is that he always will miss a game or two. Fully healthy, Adams could be the top WR this year, but it’s just a risk that I can’t in good faith put him any higher than 5.
#6 – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City
“Wow, JonnyDIII, what do you have against Hill?” Nothing. I just know he’s the #2 wide receiver on the team behind Kelce. He’s the only top end wide out that has this issue. That’s why he is farther down on my list. Mahomes also spreads the ball to everyone. Hill will do well this season but putting him inside the top 5 is risky. He’s a small guy, and in the instance he catches a ball across the middle it only takes one hit. He can take the ball at the line of scrimmage and go 90 yards on his own or run underneath a 60 yard bomb, those things I know and those things are his upside. But the Chiefs offense scores, so he will score. He’s just not the focal piece so he has to settle for 6th.
#7 – Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles (Rams)
Remember when I said I had a controversial pick, well this might top it. We are at the point where you have to make decisions. Cooks is gone, freeing up 72 targets, and Gurley is gone freeing up a handful of passes. Kupp is electric, and tough. He scores. Last year he was #4 in scoring, and 8 in average per game. I like him staying here. I don’t see him dropping off. The guy is good, and will move into the Dude for this Rams team. I like fringe teams, and last year the Rams make the playoffs in the new expanded playoff. Fringe teams likely compete in tight games throughout the season. And when you are in a tight spot, Kupp will be the guy the Rams look to get the ball to. I expect to see more of Kupp as his productivity is headed the right direction.
#8 – Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay
Can you really have two wide receivers from the same team in the top ten? Yes. Last year per game, Godwin finished 2nd and Evans 3rd. Evans was hurt a few games, so that likely helped Godwin stay at the top. This year, he regresses just because he did so well after the catch last year. People know who Godwin is. I think Gronk takes away a little from Godwin, but not a ton, or not enough to find an 8th wide receiver better than him. His upside is too big to take him out the top 10. Brady is going to take over the offense and Brady is going to want to show everyone he can go 30-40 passing with 400 yards a game. And Tampa Bay’s running game is average at best, so Brady will have to pass it more. Bruce Arians is going to let the Bucs go crazy on offense just like last season. If the Bucs could put up those numbers fantasy wise last year, no reason to think this season will be any different.
#9 – Amari Cooper – Dallas
Cooper jumped up 9 spots from 2018 to 2019 in fantasy points. He was 18 to 9 in overall points, and 22 to 13 in average points per game. The Cowboys chucked the ball a lot last season. Dak was just shy of 5,000 yards. Now, Dallas has a lot of fire power and they have Zeke. McCarthy loves underutilizing running backs, and Jerry took Lamb in the first round. Gallup and Lamb will get their touches, just like Zeke, but Cooper should stay right here at this spot for fantasy. Top ten in yards, but 21st in targets, he’s just efficient, but I think he gets more targets now that he has really established himself as a solid wide receiver. The play action, is electric for Dallas and that benefits Cooper. Also, Cooper is 26, just a year younger than some of those elite guys, this should be a big season for him going against the Eagles and Giants busted secondary.
#10 – Kenny Golladay – Detroit
This is a tough spot. There are some vets like Keenan Allen looking in and wondering. Jarvis or OBJ are in a run first offense now. Robinson does not know who his QB will be. DJ Moore, is the guy I would look to break into the top ten, he’s probably 11 if I did a top 11, lot of upside and hope. However, Golladay made huge gains going from 21 to 6 in points overall and 24 to 9 in average points per game, from 2018 to 2019. Also, the Lions will be down, do not really have a run game, and Stafford is a real solid QB. Golladay should continue to produce. He’s a safe 10. Are their guys with more upside? Sure, Juju should bounce back and AJ Brown could solidify himself as a #7 for next year’s top ten. Today, Golladay is the bar, good luck trying to pass him.
Now let’s take a look at the top five rookie wide receivers starting with five
#5 – Michael Pittman Jr. – Indianapolis
I thought hard about this one. This wide receiver class, while good, there are a lot of good wide receivers already out there. So where you end up means a lot. Pittman ended up where he starts. The Colts will likely run the ball a lot. But Pittman is the #2, behind T.Y. T. Y., who’s 30 and did not like playing full seasons in his 20s. Pittman also provides the bigger body, Phillip Rivers loved tossing it up to Keenan Allen, the bigger body. While I don’t think the numbers Pittman will put up will be insane, I do think he produces enough and gets better each year, that long term he’ll be a solid pick.
#4 – Denzel Mims – New York (Jets)
Naturally, you should be able to guess the top three players, and you will think #4 and 5 are two guys that should not be on the list. Well the Raiders love their tight end and Renfrow, and Green and Boyd with a rookie QB, good luck Higgins. And I do not care to comment on the issues in Philadelphia for Reagor or the lack of passing in the bay for Aiyuk. Mims starts, Mims competes against Crowder and Perriman for #1 targets. Bell just has to play a little better and Darnold needs to stay on the field. I mean come on. Anderson’s 96 targets are there, Demaryius Thomas leaves 58 targets, even Ty Montgomery leaves 17 targets. Split those targets between Crowder and Perriman, that s 85.5 a piece. That’s just too many targets in a season that was without your QB 1 for a number of games to not think Mims does well.
#3 – Jerry Jeudy – Denver
You can make a really good case for Jerry Jeudy being the best WR in the class. You can make the case that Courtland Sutton succeeded due to lack of options in Denver. It goes Sutton 1,112 yards to 562 in Fant. That’s a pretty steep drop. There is a lot of room there for someone to move up. Denver now has Jeudy and Hamler as starters at wide receiver. Two rookies. That shows how bad the positional depth is for the Broncos. Drew Lock, who knows what he will do. Is he a top 15 QB? Probably not, while that won’t hurt his QB value in fantasy a ton, collectively it hurts his wide receivers production. Jeudy is a risk, but he’s a risk worth waiting on. Gordon and Lindsay will likely be mixed in a lot for running and dump downs that will also mess with the ceiling for wide receivers on Denver. Regardless, Jeudy can only help Lock and Lock will then help Jeudy. He’s a can’t miss pick, but may be a wait and see.
#2 – CeeDee Lamb – Dallas
Luckily Jerry World is huge. CeeDee Lamb will benefit from a safe offense. He will get the bottom end catches. But the Cowboys threw for a lot of yards last year. Cobb and Witten totaled 166 targets, 118 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Gallup and Cooper combined for 2,200 yards, 14 touchdowns. Cooper 119 targets 79 catches, Gallup 113 targets 66 catches. It’s not like those two can take on a ton more. Will the Cowboys explode like they did last year, probably not. But, but, I like Lamb going into an offense where two vets leave and free up a lot of work for him. Lamb is an elite route runner, he will be able to find spots like Cobb, and he could even walk to a spot like Witten. Either way, I like Lamb to pick up some of what Witten and Cobb leave behind.
#1 – Justin Jefferson – Minnesota
Now, I do not think he is the best wide receiver in the draft. I do think he is on a team that will mold him the best to take over as the #1 wide receiver in two years. Adam Thielen is coming off an injury riddled season, and is 30. Diggs is gone. Jefferson walks right into that spot. Cousins, he’s capable. Diggs was targeted 94 times last season with 63 catches and 919 yards. Now, Diggs does catch a lot of 20 yard passes, think he led the NFL in 20+ yard catches last season. Jefferson likely does not do that. But Diggs also was just open a lot. Jefferson can find the opening. There’s no reason to think Jefferson is less than 50 catches and 750 yards. I think that’s pretty good for a rookie, and will only get better as he becomes the guy in Minnesota. Zimmer with the extension, maybe allows Kubiak to throw the ball more. Cook’s holdout could help determine that.
There you have it, that is all the top wide receivers that I can think of. Let me know what you think and if your guy missed the cut, let me know why so I can draft him in a different league.
Don’t drop the ball and miss next week’s addition of top ten top five, when we look at the running backs. I hope the best for you and yours. One last thing, insta @jonnydiiifootball, what will I post on there, no clue (sponsors?).
Let’s go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 