Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well.
I am continuing my top ten players of each position. This is a top ten for fantasy dynasty running backs. This is a tough one as running backs turnover so quickly. If you look to the 2017 leaderboard, those RB2s are riddled with now free agents. It’s just the nature of the game. But with that join me in my [INSERT LEAGUE NAME HERE] Fantasy Football Dynasty League Top Ten Running Backs, and the top five rookie running backs.
Important things for being a top fantasy running back; durability, touches, offensive line, receptions, scores, good team, and fumbles. The receptions thing, really is what separates the top end guys. Touches are also a big factor, while shared backfields are common theme in the NFL, fantasy you want a workhorse. Touches are opportunity, it’s a safer bet that the guy with all the touches will have more consistent value than the guy you hope springs one run or gets one touchdown. The team also matters. If you are up early, your guy might get all the touches the rest of the way to run out the clock. But when it all comes down to it, you just have to hope your guy is the starter and he plays all 16 games.
Let’s look at some rankings as of now.
| Fantasy Pros (Half PPR) | ESPN (Full PPR) |
| 1. Christian McCaffrey – Carolina | Christian McCaffrey – Carolina |
| Saquon Barkley – New York (Giants) | Saquon Barkley – New York (Giants) |
| Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas | Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas |
| Derrick Henry – Tennessee | Dalvin Cook – Minnesota |
| Alvin Kamara – New Orleans | Alvin Kamara – New Orleans |
| Dalvin Cook – Minnesota | Derrick Henry – Tennessee |
| Joe Mixon – Cincinnati | Nick Chubb – Cleveland |
| Nick Chubb – Cleveland | Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles (Chargers) |
| Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas | Aaron Jones – Green Bay |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City | Joe Mixon – Cinncinatti |
In a non-ppr setting ESPN has Aaron Jones at 7, Nick Chubb at 8, Joe Mixon at 9, Josh Jacobs at 10, and Ekeler is 11. Full PPR Jacobs was 13. I do not want to take a shot at anyone’s ratings, but Jones had almost 20 more targets and had 13 more receptions than Chubb last year, so I have no idea how Jones is favored in a non-ppr setting, but then lower than Chubb in ppr setting. Again, no one is really right on RBs as they change so much throughout the year due to injuries and just how the game is played. If your RBs team is behind your RB could be sitting on the sideline. I am going to take a look at the top ten running backs I would want on my team.
#1, #2, and #3
Christian McCaffrey – Carolina, Saquon Barkley – New York (Giants), Ezekiel Elliot – Dallas
These are no brainers. These should be all picks within the top five of every draft. If you are lucky, you are in a draft with a bunch of Giant’s fans and you have the second pick. You might get McCaffrey. There is no need to discuss the quality of these three guys. I do think that next year, the argument could be made that Zeke is the #2 RB. Now, things have to go his way, things would have to not go Saquon’s way. But Zeke has two rushing titles, 2019 finished 4th overall for RB, and 5th for average per game at RB. In 2018 finished 5th overall, and 8th in average. In 2017 finished 9th overall (ten games) and 2nd in average. The guy is good, I think him and Saquon are a coin flip, while CMC is the clear cut #1. Now after this we enter the second tier of guys.
#4 – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans
These next three guys, number 4 through 6, one you will love, one you will hate, and one you will put up with this year. That’s how I am going to rank them. I do not see a scenario where Alvin Kamara has another down year. And as long as you don’t let me down, I love you. Last year he finished 16th overall and 15th on average. In 2018 he finished 4th overall and 5th on average. In 2017 4th overall and 6th on average. Michael Thomas set a record last year. Brees is another year older, probably his last year. While I think the Saints will want to send Brees off in the right way, a good way to do that is mixing in a lot of Kamara. Passing game, running game, a nice balanced attack to keep Brees upright. Let’s look at the stats, Kamara’s stats from 2017 to 2019, carries 120, 194, 171. Receptions 81 across the board. Rushing touchdowns 8, 14, 5, receiving 5, 4, 1. Conservatively, Kamara left 6 touchdowns on the field. That puts him at #9 overall. I think Kamara is in on more of the scoring this year, his yardage numbers were down too. I just don’t think a talent like Kamara is left out this year.
#5 – Derrick Henry – Tennessee
I think Derrick Henry is the one to put up with this year. Fresh off of a rushing title, the Titans kept a lot of things the same. Last year he finished second overall, and averaged second overall, with a game less. Year before he was 13th overall, 17th average. Year before 25th overall, 37th on average. So it was a bit of a Randy Orton RKO with him this last year. He’s streaky. The Titans invested in him. The Titans need him for their offense to be successful. But 300 touches? Is that sustainable? I think it is for another year or two. He stay at 275 carries a year, I mean Bell had 245 last year. His numbers will likely go down a touch this year, but I fully expect him to be in the top three of rushing this year. If you have that many yards, he should be in the top five on that alone.
#6 – Dalvin Cook – Minnesota
Cook is coming off of a great year, 5th overall and 3rd on average. All I see are red flags, wants to hold out, now he’s not, previous injuries, who knows. The Vikings had the sixth best rushing offense last year. Can they do that again? They might lose Everson Griffen. That will hurt their defense. They lost Diggs, who knows what this team will be next year. It’s not a ton of questions, maybe even an overreaction. But to put him ahead of Henry and Kamara, I can’t do. I expect the Vikings to slightly underperform from what they did last year. (that doesn’t mean less wins, just less production) The Vikings will still be the second or best team in the NFC North. I just see their overall offensive numbers taking a dip, their defense not being as tough and slowing control of the game. That’s why I put him at 6, do I think he’s the guy to “hate” this year, no. I don’t hate anybody, it’s all love. But I think Cook does well not great.
#7 – Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas
I am kind of like MJ here, this pick, I took it personal. I love Josh Jacobs. The guy is what you want in an RB. He’s in his second year. Last year 14th overall, 11th in points per game. He increases off of that and gets into the top ten. Those who finished in front of him last year were Ekeler, Chris Carson, Gurley, Fournette, Mixon, Ingram, and Aaron Jones. I can see him jumping all of them. The Raiders are bad, and Josh Jacobs had a great rookie year. He had 242 carries, 1,150 yards, 7and 7 touchdowns. All of those numbers can improve. Sitting just outside the top ten last year per game, a slight increase in those numbers puts him in the top ten. The 7 through 14 spot is very competitive. The difference tends to be the number of games played. Jacobs is going to be the workhorse for the Raiders this year, he just has to stay healthy. He stays healthy, he’s easily a top ten guy.
#8 – Aaron Jones – Green Bay
I go back and forth on this one. Jones had ridiculous touchdown numbers last year. The Packers also now have A.J. Dillon who you would think takes away short yardage/goal line touches from Jones. But Jones is electric in the run game and pass game. He has to be on the field for the Pack. He’s a shifty guy, he averages over 5 yards per carry. Sure, maybe Green Bay becomes more of a running team, and maybe the carries are given to Dillon or Williams. But any increase in run attempts, should only help Jones. Jones could use another 30-40 touches in a more run heavy offense. I think it balances out. It’s tough to sustain his productivity, but at the same time, an increase in touches should keep him at the top of fantasy boards.
#9 – Joe Mixon – Cincinnati
I think you have to give Mixon one more chance. He finished the season well, being the in his last eight games, he finished as the fifth best RB. He’s getting a fresh start. Joe Burrow will need to hand the ball off. A.J. Green is back, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins too, I think this new offense has a little juice this year. I mean the guy is 24, he has to do well this year. He had a “bad year” last year. He finished 11 overall, 17th on average. He’s right there. As tough as he was to have to start the year he finished well. I think the hope that this year brings will give Mixon a spark as he has to be the guy to help create for Burrow. I think he stays there, moves up a touch, has a little fresh look on the year. He’s my 9, he could fall off, but his ADP puts him near the end of the first, if you are a bookend you might get lucky and snag a good wide out and have Mixon as your RB1, or double down on low end RB1s.
#10 – Miles Sanders – Philadelphia
Miles finished 15th overall and 21st on average. Not great, but he finished decent, he was a rookie, he had under 200 rushes. The Eagles wide receivers are bad, I like him to get more touches this next year. He should have more yards, more touchdowns, more everything. I like Sanders being the three down guy, not that Howard is gone. Maybe Boston Scott gets the goal line duty, but Sanders is going to be a Kamara type guy, just on a worse team. Miles had a fair number of receptions last year, 50, so he should get more. Plus he’s young, did well. I love these second year guys for fantasy. When Miles is available you will have some options as he is going mid second round. You could have a solid RB2 in Miles, a nice balance with a top end WR and RB1. Either way, Miles is a real solid guy to have, he will be an electric RB to have this year.
Who missed the list, Nick Chubb. Why? When Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt played the last 8 games of the year Chubb was 15 in scoring, Kareem Hunt finished 19. Chubb fantasy wise is going to suffer from Kareem Hunt having a half season under his belt, and a full season of work this year. Chubb will he the workhouse as a rusher, and Hunt will do more work in the passing game, but he’s has a rushing title. So Hunt, rushing title, Chubb does not. I think both are good value RB 2s, as they finished well last year. But RB one territory, I have to pass. Also, any RB with injury history or are looking for or have a second contract missed the list. Gurley, Bell, and Fournette, all can end up in the middle to back end of this top ten, but I don’t think it will be consistent or something as an RB1 that you want for a dynasty. That’s why they missed it. There are a lot of guys that you think will finish between the 8 to 16 spot, with some random guys in the mix.
The Top 5 Rookies in reverse order. This rookie class has a lot of hope for next year. These next five guys should compete for a starting job.
#5 – Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Tampa Bay
For Ke’Shawn, this is all about the depth chart. Ronald Jones is an alright running back. But over the last couple seasons Jones and Barber (no longer in Tampa) split the work load. It was inconsistent and frustrating if you were a fantasy owner, as you didn’t know who would get the carries. I think Vaughn has a good chance of getting 50% of the work, or for taking over. I like him here, ahead of other backs that are on the outside looking in for a starting spot.
#4 – Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis
Taylor is playing on a run heavy team. Marlon Mack cannot handle the load all on his own. I think Taylor takes over at some point in the season. But, of all the running backs, ranked higher than him, he has to actually earn his spot. The other guys could lose their spot, but at least it all points to these guys being the starter going into the season. Long term, I think Taylor has what it takes to stay in the league and be a consistent running back, but starting out it won’t be easy, and to quote Miley, “it’s the climb.”
#3 – D’Andre Swift – Detroit
Swift might be the starter, he also has to compete with Kerryon Johnson, and Bo Scarbrough is hanging out in the mix. Will Bo at least get the goal line carries? We don’t know. Detroit’s backfield is a mess, will Johnson be healthy and take the lead? It’s a bit of a mess. Swift is a very good running back, I like him to win the starting roll and to provide some consistency for the Lions.
#2 – Cam Akers – Los Angeles (Rams)
Cam looks to be the starter. He might be the quick, shifty running back the Rams need to help them out. The Rams need RB help, and Cam Akers can do it. FSU was not the FSU of old while Akers was there, the offense was inconsistent. The offensive line was a bit of an issue. While the Rams offensive line is alright, the improvement for Akers should help him continue his success as a rusher. This, like others, is purely based on depth chart.
#1 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City
Everything came together for Clyde. Mahomes hand picked him, and Williams is opting out of the 2020 season. I do not think he is the best running back out of the bunch. I do think he will have the most opportunity, and also running backs thrive under Andy Reid’s offense. Clyde is just the right guy at the right time. Without even playing he is a solid RB2 for any fantasy owner.
Rookies I left off, J.K. Dobbins, he is will likely have to wait to play. That goes the same for a guy like Zack Moss who’s behind Singletary. I think those guys are good, but will have to wait a little longer.
That does it for this week’s top ten. Next week we will look to quarterbacks. We are slowly working through logos for each guy in our league. Sponsor rumors are swirling. Instagram is @jonnydiiifootball, and we got some other things up our sleeves that we are working out. I love you all and hope we all have a better tomorrow.
Let’s go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 