Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well.
I am continuing my top ten players of each position. Today we look at quarterbacks. Quarterbacks vary in value, and generally starting quarterback’s end of the year scoring is close. We have a couple tiers. The top, the top-middle, the average, and everyone else. Important factors include, passing, receivers, offensive line, and team success. You want a team that slings it and is competitive. If your receivers are bad, you have to be elite, if your o-line is bad, there is no saving you. There’s not really much to say here, this is one position that you are going to ride with the entire year, so make the pick count.
Important things for being a top fantasy running back; durability, touches, offensive line,
Let’s look at some rankings as of now.
| Fantasy Pros (Half PPR) | ESPN (Standard) |
| 1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City | Lamar Jackson – Baltimore |
| Lamar Jackson – Baltimore | Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City |
| Dak Prescott – Dallas | Kyler Murray – Arizona |
| Russell Wilson – Seattle | Dak Prescott – Dallas |
| Kyler Murray – Arizona | Deshaun Watson – Houston |
| Deshaun Watson – Houston | Russell Wilson – Seattle |
| Matt Ryan – Atlanta | Tom Brady – Tampa Bay |
| Josh Allen – Buffalo | Matt Ryan – Atlanta |
| Carson Wentz – Philadelphia | Drew Brees – New Orleans |
| Drew Brees – New Orleans | Carson Wentz – Philadelphia |
I think the quarterback rankings are fairly straight forward. The top two, the next four, then the next ten. If you land in that next ten, fingers crossed one of those guys springs to the top. But here are my top ten.
#1 – Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City
“You’re biased, you picked him.” Yes, but I think he’s the best. We are in a dynasty draft, he is young, doesn’t run the ball a ton, loves to sling it, his coach loves to sling it, and he’s signed through 2030. He is an MVP, he is a Super Bowl MVP, he signed the biggest deal, he is paid a lot, Kansas City loves him, he’s yet to have a bad game. I do not need to defend this so I’m not going to, just like I’m not going to defend my #2 QB.
#2 – Lamar Jackson – Baltimore
It’s not likely Jackson puts up as high of video game numbers this year. It is likely he still looks like a video game. He will take a dip in rushing most likely, but he will then have more opportunities to pass and improve there. Which he doesn’t have a lot to improve on, but this is the one spot of his almost flawless game he could use his third year in the NFL to grow into. Criticism against Lamar is that he has not been in the league long enough, but that’s good too. Because he’s going to be in the league a long time. But if you take him, and compare him to Mahomes. I like Mahomes sustaining his success for longer because he plays the game differently. Lamar will likely do a touch less running, and teams are going to try to force him to throw it more. What that will look like, I do not know, that is why I have him behind Mahomes. If for some reason you are stuck with either of these two quarterbacks, no one cares, waiver wire harder.
#3 – Deshaun Watson – Houston
All the reasons I said Jackson is not better than Mahomes is why Watson is better than everyone else. He runs, he’s the guy, he’s usually healthy. He doesn’t have any wide receivers, his o-line is questionable, but this is an elite quarterback. Last year, he averaged the second most points behind Lamar, 2018 he was fourth in average, 2017 he was top dog in average. The guy is elite, been elite, and I fully expect him to stay elite. It does not matter that he lost his #1 wide receiver. Fuller, Cobb, Cooks, and Stills, those aren’t a bad group of wide outs, and maybe David Johnson turns back the clock a little. Watson doesn’t need top end guys around him, he’ll bring the rest of his team up to him. ADP will have Watson behind Wilson and Murray for sure, but he’s worth the pick.
#4 – Russell Wilson – Seattle
Wilson is not a sexy pick, but he just gets it done. He’s going to have a low interception season, the Seahawks are going to win a good number of games. Down the stretch they will need to win a couple games to win the division or slip into the wild card. He just seems to be a guy that always does enough. His enough last year had him finish 4th and average 7th. I like him fourth out of the quarterbacks, and if he’s in the sixth round, it’s going to be tough to pass on him. He’s going to be at the top of the QB board. Metcalf has another year, Lockett is solid, the mixed bag at RB will force Wilson to take over games. He makes good decisions, so I like him here.
#5 – Kyler Murray – Arizona
Murray is the toughest pick here. Entering year two what will we get? His team got better, adding Hopkins and Drake. Drake finished well with the Cards so there is some connection there. D-Hop will add a lot to the offense, and if he’s not available, Fitz and Christian Kirk are more than capable of pumping up Murray’s numbers. Plus he scrambles well, I like him in that department. He’s like a Russell Wilson, runs when needed and gets down. This is all assuming he can continue off of last year. If he doesn’t then he could fall outside the top ten. But I think Arizona has too much going on and is a bad enough team that Murray will have to make plays and catch up. They are looking at an 8-8 hopefully. That should produce good QB numbers as I do not see them handling too many teams, and taking the ball out of Murray’s hands.
#6 – Dak Prescott – Dallas
This would be the one pick I would avoid if I was taking a QB from this second tier. Simply because he cannot maintain almost 5,000 yards passing. Dallas had everything clicking last year, running, passing, they could do it all. There is nothing that made sense about last year. Everyone clicked. Dak had a 30 TD season, 4,900 yards, I do not expect a repeat. But if he can put together something less, he still has the weapons and offense that puts him as a top guy. I just don’t know what will happen to him long term dynasty wise, and I personally need another top end season before I give Dak my stamp of approval. He’s the back end of the second tier.
#7 – Josh Allen – Buffalo
Here is where things get interesting, all of these guys blend together. Allen is at 7 because he will run the ball a lot, and is a big body that has less chance for injury when he is hit. He loves chucking the ball deep and Diggs led the league in 20 plus yard receptions last season I believe. I think that works out. I don’t think it makes Allen go higher than the 5-8 range, but I think it keeps him there.
#8 – Carson Wentz – Philadelphia
Same reasons as Allen, just his team is worse. Wentz will run to make the big play, Wentz just needs to stay healthy. He finished 9th last year, and 13th overall. He is missing wide receiver help, but Miles Sanders is a guy that can pump up Wentz’s numbers. I like that aspect of it. Wentz is a gamer and he’s going to hang in there as long as possible to get the ball out. He’s tough, just as a fantasy owner, I do not like how tough he is. Get rid of the ball early to Sanders and let him be tough.
#9 – Drew Brees – New Orleans
I do not like these picks, they just do not have the excitement they use to. Brees is likely in his last year. His offense is elite. Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Sean Payton behind it all, make this thing tick. Brees is smart and just added Emmanuel Sanders to his arsenal. I think the guys around Brees keep him here. He finished 8th in 2018 and 7th on average, and last year in despite injury finished 8th in average. He is a safe pick, he is a guy that keeps you in the mix for solid QB play.
#10 – Matt Ryan – Atlanta
Now, this pick I like. He finished 11th last year, but missed one game. If he plays in that game and has 15 points he finished 8th, he scores 17 points he finished 6th. That’s how close these picks are. The top five guys had separation, and Lamar was on a different planet. But Ryan is on an offense with all former firsts. Julio is still prime, Ridley is improving, Gurley wants to prove himself, I like everything I see. At least as far as putting up ok fantasy numbers. The Falcons are always in shootouts and that means Matty Ice is going to have to chuck the ball. Matt Ryan is a safe pick, but with how good his team looks on paper. The problem with these picks is that they are so close together in scoring, so if you do not get a top six guy, no need to rush into Matty Ice until late.
Guys who missed out. Rodgers, Stafford, they are safe picks just the Lions are bad and I think Rodgers numbers stay efficient but “down” and keep him around that 10th spot. Goff, he was bad, he’ll stay in this middle of the pack 12-16 area. Tom Brady, lot of hype, just not something I’m willing to try. Cam, if you are late in the draft and QBs are off the board and you are happy with your team, Cam is all upside. Let’s say Cam is bad, ok so he finishes 60 points out of the top ten. That’s about three games worth of if he is just a regular QB. But Cam could come out of nowhere and sling it. Brady finished 12th last year, had a “bad” year, and does not run the ball. Cam will get 200-300 yards on the ground and 2-5 rushing TDs, I’m guaranteeing that. The problem I have with Cam is that you are going to play a QB carrousel and that just takes too much mental energy for me. I’m a plug and play guy when I can be.
Now for our Rookies.
#5 – Jordan Love – Green Bay
The quarterbacks in here, on paper, will have to really work to play. Rodgers is “old” and he could be traded after two years. Or Rodgers plays for four and then moves on. Either way, it looks like Jordan Love will be the Packers QB in year 5. Long play, but Rodgers has always put up decent numbers. Rodgers is very good at football, but hopefully by the time Love is playing QB, the Pack invest a little more capital into a wide receiver 2.
#4 – Jacob Eason – Indianapolis
I like his odds of learning from Phil and taking over next year. He had high regards entering the draft, he was linked to being the next Patriot. All of that fell through and he ended up in as good of spot as any. Next year will be interesting, as the Colts will have to either, resign Rivers, keep Brissett, or move on to Eason? I like the play here next year, I don’t think you sign Rivers and draft a rookie QB if you want Brissett as your QB. It’s a big question mark though, as Brissett did play well when he was in.
#3 – Tua Tagovailoa – Miami
I love Tua, he’s electric. Lefty QB, sign me up. The issue is we don’t know how healthy he is. Another issue is we do not know how healthy he can stay behind the Miami offensive line. Additional issue, who does he throw the ball to? While some of the guys like Parker finally hit their mark in the middle of their career, can that keep up? Is that sustainable? Was it just the wrong fit for the years prior? I don’t trust the offense today. If Tua can hang tough and this young team grows, maybe in two years we hold the Dolphins in a different rank. But for now, the Dolphins in general are a huge question. Either way, Phins Up!
#2 – Justin Herbert – Los Angeles (Chargers)
Herbert has to earn his spot, but he’s the only other QB with a clean bill of health and the team wants him to be the franchise QB. I think he has decent weapons, he killed the Bratless Badgers in the bowl game on the ground, so maybe he mixes a little of that in here and there. I think Herbert checks all the boxes of how you draw up a QB, he just has to do a little more on the field to be an actual good QB. He is a good player to have and hold onto in case he becomes something down the road.
#1 – Joe Burrow – Cincinnati
Why is Joe Burrow at the top? He’s the only clear cut day one starter. Andy Dalton did alright on the Bengals. He was a middle of the pack guy. Joe Burrow is young, and will likely run more. Rushing yards launch quarterbacks up a few spots. I think Burrow has the combination of running and throwing it to have a good year. Will he be a Kyler Murray? I don’t think so, just because I don’t trust the guys around him and the coaching. Murray was put in a pretty good spot, Burrow is put in a decent spot. He could sneak into QB 10 at the end of the year, but you also chance QB 28.
That does it for this week’s top ten. I have just a couple logos left, we will be leaking those on insta. We also, maybe, include some casual advice for casual fans, depending on your local, state, and/or country gaming laws. Instagram is @jonnydiiifootball, and we got some other things up our sleeves that we are working out. Oh and potential sponsors, we are still looking for a League name, and did I mention we have an Instagram (endless plugs?). That wraps things, up stay tuned for next week as we look at tight ends. I love you all and hope we all have a better tomorrow.
Let’s go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 