Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well. You are probably confused about the title of today’s post. A Meal is something I gobble up if the pick is there, a Heel is a term in wrestling for someone you have to hate, the bad guy. I’m going to go through my Top Five Meals and Top Five Heels.
First, let’s eat.
For a meal it’s almost a treat, it’s something I force if I have to. Like a nice juicy burger, maybe I’m not hungry, but if you put that thing in front of me, I’m house calling that burg. Before I actually get hungry let’s get to it reverse order.
#5 – Cam Akers – Los Angeles (Rams)
Now this meal is a good quality meal. It’s not quite a sit down restaurant, boss is picking up the tab meal. But it’s a Thursday night with the boys for some beers and wings. Just a good time. Overall, Akers is fairly ranked. But I like him for one big reason. There’s no one else. Let’s look at some guys in his area. He’s ranked behind three rookies, CEH, Jonathan Taylor, and D’Andre Swift. The guys behind him all split time. Akers is on his own. If you look at rush attempts, Colts have 5 more attempts per game and the Lions have a half more carries per game. The Colts have a really solid starter or backup in Mack. The Lions might start Kerryon all year. Again, Akers is all alone. He will not beat CEH due to the passing aspect, but Gurley use to get some check downs. CEH a rookie, could easily drop a great deal from his ADP. Will Akers be able, or trusted, to be out on the field at all times, I don’t know. But he is for sure an RB2 or Flex I am eyeing up to get in rounds 5/6.
#4 – Jamison Crowder – New York (Jets)
This meal is that one craving you get, like a buffet every now and then. Has a chance to hit the spot, or could leave you empty, but my goodness is it cheap. Crowder is the only starting receiver returning for Darnold. He had over a 110 targets last year. His production for targets was lower than others in a similar situation. His ADP is 128 as WR 47. His ranking has him as the 31st WR 1 for a team off the board and some #2 and #3 wide receivers are ahead of him. I think this low of a ranking is something I pay for. All those targets and Darnold is healthy. I like Crowder as a WR 3, I think he ends in the low 30s, which is a big enough jump for me to take him a touch ahead of where he’s going. Maybe a 9th round for sure a 10th depending on what the board is leaving me.
#3 – D.J. Chark – Jacksonville
This is a Friday Night Fish Fry as it just hits the spot and never disappoints. Chark is WR23 and ADP 52 overall. Those right in front of him are Metcalf and Locket, no way both finish in front of him. But I am going to focus on A.J. Brown. Everyone loves A.J. Brown this year and he’s an absolute stud, but opportunity. Jacksonville averages 10 more passes a game than Tennessee. Chark had 118 targets and 73 receptions, Brown 84 targets and 52 receptions. The team identities are different. Titans, run, Jaguars, balanced/passing offense. Chark and Brown had similar receiving yards and tied for 8 touchdowns. Now, people think Brown will do more. Yes, his receptions will go up, but his yards, those do not have to go up. Tennessee runs the ball, the Jaguars throw the ball. Chark ended as a top end WR2 having missed a game. Chark will likely have better opportunity as Minshew is more familiar with the offense. The Jaguars overall will be better. The Titans should stay the same offensively. Last season, Chark finished 1 point behind Brown. Why Brown is at the top of the WR2 class and Chark is at the bottom makes no sense. I like Chark to have the same production as Brown if not better, at a much lower price. Chark is the guy you take because you can use Brown’s pick to get an RB or Kelce/Kittle to lock up your TE position.
#2 – Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods – Los Angeles (Rams)
One of my favorite meals is second breakfast. It is when you eat breakfast, and then eat it again. Kupp is WR 16 and Woods WR 24. Kupp finished WR 4 last year and Woods finished WR 17. Rams had a low Passing Touchdown total and the TDs went to Kupp. Woods can easily move up. And Kupp will likely finish lower than last year. Cooks and Gurley are both leaving receptions behind. Rams are a pass heavy offense. While I do not think Kupp and Woods can be an Evans and Godwin of last year, I do think a 7 and 14 finish for the two is very reasonable. With where they are going, this can be the ticket to winning your league. All in on doubling down on Kupp and Woods in your starting lineup.
#1 – Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas
You ever go to a really nice restaurant, order a steak and a twice baked potato. The whole thing is magical and you are ok with the money you spend on the meal because it’s something you cannot wait to have again. Josh Jacobs is a meaty running back that is only going to do more. Josh Jacobs finishing as the RB 4 behind CMC, Zeke, and Kamara or Saquon is very reasonable. Jacobs will get close to 300 touches. Raiders want Jacobs in the passing game. He was a rookie and tore it up, adding receptions to his fantasy production will make him elite. If the Raiders can do anything with their passing game, Jacobs will have less pressure and be able to run more freely. I want the late first pick so I can scoop Josh Jacobs.
These are some great meals, and calories do not count in fantasy.
Now let’s get the boo birds going. A heel is someone that you like but should not. The fantasy version of that is being picked above where you will finish, someone that will underperform their ADP this year and are guys that could cost you your fantasy championship hopes. Let’s ring the bell and bring on some heels.
#5 – Kenny Golladay – Detroit
Golladay reminds me of Rowdy Roddy Piper. Piper was a fan favorite for his incredible wrestling, hard work, and his mic ability. There is a lot of talk around Golladay this year, and I am having none of it. I have him as my WR 10, ADP puts him at WR 7, going right around the end of the second, start of the third. The problem for me, is that Golladay is going to be your WR 1 if you are the first through third pick overall. ADP has both of the top two QBs and TEs going before Golladay, so he could in theory sneak up to mid second round. If Golladay is your WR 1, you better have a good WR 2. I’m just a little worried with Golladay. Stafford is coming off an injury, invested in an RB. This is probably Patricia’s last chance. I see Patricia as a ground and pound. I think Golladay’s targets go down. I also guarantee his TDs go down. He led the league in 11 TDs, I don’t see it happening again. I mean I think Golladay is a lock for a top 20 WR, but how much higher can he climb than WR 7? I feel like he is somewhere between WR 10-14. While this is not a huge drop, I think he’s the top end WR that doesn’t live up to expectations.
#4 – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City
Hill is none other than the Rated R Superstar Edge. Edge always flirted with injury putting himself through some absolutely brutal matches. The risk/reward with Edge is a lot like Hill, but his ADP is set up for his reward, leaving only risk. Hill’s ADP is 10, and WR 3. This puts him in front of Julio Jones a reception machine, and DeAndre Hopkins. Hill does not stay healthy, when he did play 16 games in the last three years, he was WR 1. But that’s not enough for me with his risk. Taking him before Jones and D-Hop is not the right move. I have Mike Evans in front of him too. I just know that Hill is either going to miss a couple games or he’s just going to let you down a little. I cannot take him in the first where they have him going. The only strategy where I like Hill is if you go WR/WR. Hill will not produce as expected, but he still is a backend WR1, he’s just not the top end WR1.
#3 – Hunter Henry – Los Angeles (Chargers)
Henry reminds me of the Million Dollar Man, Ted DiBiase. DiBiase was a great wrestler who had the likes of Hogan, Jake the Snake, the Ultimate Warrior, Andre the Giant, Macho Man, and Dusty Rhodes in the mix. The Million Dollar Man was always a great attraction, but with other wrestlers around him the price of admission for the Million Dollar Man was the same as everyone else. Henry is currently the 6th TE off the board going in the middle of the 6th. Now that’s not a terrible time to take a tight end, but the middle tier tight ends are not the move this year. You can wait here. You can lock up a solid flex here. You can take a bad team’s RB1 or you can take a good team’s WR2 here. These are quality flex/bye week starters. If you miss here and take a tight end who has no one to throw him the ball, it will hurt you. Tight ends are the toughest position to hit on, and if you miss you have a problem. Between Tyrod and a rookie quarterback, I do not see Henry getting a ton of targets. I just think the Chargers regress and a position that will underperform is going to be Hunter Henry. I would wait and take a tight end with upside like Fant, Gesicki, Hurst, Hockenson or Smith. Take the flex/depth pick over H.H.
#2 – Melvin Gordon – Denver
Gordon is the JLB of Heels. He’s just someone that you’re not going to like for a long time. The holdout and now he is going to split carries with Lindsey. I think Gordon is a good running back and respect him for all he does, but he’s going in a position ahead of other clear cut starters. He’s going ahead of Conner, Bell, and Ingram. Bell and Conner are the workhorses for their team. Gordon you are hoping for better efficiency. Bell and Conner do not have a good running back behind them. Ingram is on a high powered offense. Gordon is on a very young football team. Gordon can only fall. Lindsey is beloved in Denver. Linsey is Daniel Bryan. He is who the people want. Denver has to give both time. It’s smart, as it will help the team, but also to appease the fans. Neither of those things helps fantasy fans. Gordon is a big time Heel this year, and I’m going to avoid at his price.
#1 – Dak Prescott – Dallas
Arguably the biggest heel was Stone Cold Steve Austin, the Texas Rattlesnake. Dak’s problems with Jerry Jones, aka Vince McMahon, on contract negotiations is the drama we love. The parallels are there, but Dak is not the football player that Stone Cold was as a wrestler. Dak is currently QB 3 and the 47th pick. Dak almost had 5,000 yards last year. I do not see those numbers repeating. The Cowboys offense was electric last year. I think they still do well, but I do not believe that Dak will be the Fantasy Rattlesnake this year. Taking Dak a round earlier than Wilson, Murray, Watson, or rounds earlier than other QBs, and costing yourself a steal in Lockett, Allen, Chark, or Woods, would be a pick that will bite you. For Quarterbacks it’s Mahomes, Jackson, a round after ADP for those other second tier QBs, or just wait.
That does it for this week’s post. Hopefully you enjoy some meals and avoid some heels in your fantasy football draft. BIG announcement coming out later this week on insta, @jonnydiiifootball well it’s not that big but anyways tune in to find out. Next week I think I am going to begin hibernation and look at some deep sleepers. Good luck in your upcoming drafts. I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.
Let’s Go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 