Good morning, we are going to do a mock draft for Day 1 of the NFL Football Draft and how that works for the Pot Cakes Dynasty League. First we will run through a one round mock, and then we will run through how that moves these rookies up or down a dynasty draft.
Pick 1 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence Clemson QB
This pick is a lock for Trevor Lawrence. Jaguars are looking to rebuild their team and with Trevor Lawrence being the best QB, this is an easy pick. Jags can build their team while Lawrence goes through any growing pains adjusting to the NFL.
Pick 2 – New York Jets – Zach Wilson BYU QB
I have nothing against Zach Wilson. I just don’t believe how we got to the point where we just through Justin Fields out of the number two spot. The Jets have done this before, they took a chance on a QB and it didn’t pan out. We will get to see if it’s the QB’s problem or the Jets organization’s problem.
Pick 3 – San Francisco 49ers – Justin Fields OSU QB
Now while the Jets are “reaching” for their guy the 49ers will take who is left. That should be Fields. Fields is a great fit for the 49ers run game and will open up their playbook a little more adding some read option plays I would think. Fields will luck out in this spot as he should be able to ease into the starting role.
Pick 4 – Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts Florida Tight End
I think the Falcons trade this pick back. They have too many options, so why not trade back and get another pick to fill out their many team needs. But I don’t do trades, so the pick is Pitts, he’s rumored to be a once in a generation talent. People are saying he is a potential hall of famer. I think the Falcons take the risk here and try to cash in on one last Matt Ryan led team.
Pick 5 – Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell Oregon OT
Bengals have their QB, they need an offensive line to protect him. Burrow ran for his life last year, so the Bengals have to take the best OT available. This is the second easiest pick of the draft behind the first pick.
Pick 6 – Miami Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase LSU WR
Now the Dolphins could unite Tua with either Waddle or Smith, but with both Waddle and Smith saying they prefer Jones over Tua I pass on them. Chase is everyone’s #1 WR in this years draft, so he should go off the board first.
Pick 7 – Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons – Penn State LB
The Lions have a new coach in Dan Campbell, he’s a tough guy. What better pick than taking the versatile linebacker in Parsons. He is a great defensive player and is the perfect guy for Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions.
Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater Northwester OT
The Panthers traded for Darnold. The Panthers have needs. They will likely take Pitts if he falls here, but with all the Panthers needs, they should sure up their O-line and then work on their other needs, mainly defense. With teams moving up for QBs and WRs and everything else. The Panthers get to take a tackle that might not be here in a normal draft.
Pick 9 – Denver Broncos – Trey Lance NDSU QB
The Broncos need a QB. If the draft works out and only 3 QBs go before this pick the Broncos should have the option of Jones or Lance. Lance is the pick, I think that is who Elway has a preference for. He’s a bit of a raw talent, NDSU only playing 1 game last season doesn’t help him either, but I think he has more upside than Jones. Carson Wentz showed that an NDSU QB can play in the league, it’s up to Lance to determine how long.
Pick 10 – Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn South Carolina CB
The Cowboys made splashes last year with taking CeeDee Lamb, this year they need to go defense. They need a cornerback in the worst way. Horn is the guy that could be the lockdown Corner to help the Cowboys get Dak the ball more times.
Pick 11 – New York Giants – Kwity Payne Michigan Defensive End
The Giants want a Strahan. They need defensive help. Payne is an explosive player that hopefully will give the Giants the defensive pressure they need. The Giants need help across the board, but everyone in an armchair knows getting pressure on a QB is the answer to having a better defense.
Pick 12 – Philadelphia Eagles – Jaylen Waddle Alabama WR
The Eagles need WRs in the worst way. The lack of WRs might have cost Carson Wentz his job in Philly. So giving Jalen Hurts a chance to prove he’s the QB of the future, by giving him an explosive weapon on the edge is the answer. Waddle’s elite route running and speed is a game changer and could be the push Philly needs to win a bad division.
Pick 13 – Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw Virginia Tech OT
The Chargers have WRs, they have their franchise QB, they have a good RB. They need to address defensive needs, but they need to protect their guy. Darrisaw is not as much of a drop off from Sewell. Those top 3 are all great, and that is good enough for the Chargers.
Pick 14 – Gregory Rousseau Miami Defensive End
The Vikings need a D-End. Rousseau is the guy for the Vikings. The Vikings have a young defense and having addressed the secondary in last year’s draft they need to take a chance on a guy up front. Rousseau is that guy.
Pick 15 – New England Patriots – Mac Jones Alabama QB
The Patriots will take an Alabama player here. Whether it is DeVonta Smith or Jones will be determined on draft night. But seeing as the Patriots have been in talks of moving up for a QB, I think if one falls to them at 15 they will take a QB there.
Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Surtain II Alabama CB
The Cardinals need defensive help in the worst way. Surtain is the guy that can help them out. He is a lockdown Corner and a hard hitter. The Cards have to take him or someone similar with this pick.
Pick 17 – Las Vegas Raiders – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Notre Dame LB
Jeremiah is a bit of an athlete on the defensive side. He can line up on the edge or as an outside backer. He is a versatile player that can hopefully make up for some of the red flags on the Las Vegas defense. He is the best defensive player available at this pick, so this pick makes sense.
Pick 18 – Miami Dolphins – Najee Harris Alabama RB
This is the pick that can ruin any mock draft. The Dolphins should go with the best available WR at pick 6. This is a “reach” for a running back at 18, but with Pittsburg saying they are in on an RB in the first, and knowing the Jets have two picks before the Dolphins pick again, I think the Dolphins splurge here, and follow up with the best d-end available with pick 36. With this D-end class being more raw talent than NFL ready types, I think it makes the most sense to lock up the sure thing and gamble later on. But do not be surprised if whoever is left from Miami’s d-ends is this pick.
Pick 19 – Washington Football Team – Alija Vera-Tuker USC Guard
Now, no trades, so the WFT takes one of the best interior lineman. WFT needs to rebuild up front. Their defense is solid, they will need a good o-line to run the ball and protect whichever QB they take in the second round. Plus, Fitzmagic needs protection too.
Pick 20 – Chicago Bears – Caleb Farley Virginia Tech Corner
The Bears need help across the board. I think they go with a Corner. In a division that competes against Aaron Rodgers, the Bears need help to stop the passing game in the NFC North. Farley was the best corner in the draft but injuries causes him to drop. The Bears have a potential steal.
Pick 21 – Indianapolis Colts – Tevin Jenkins Oklahoma State OT
The Colts just made a move for Wentz, they have JT as an RB. They need to sure up their O-line. They just had a tackle retire and now they need a replacement. Wentz can have a second shot with the Colts but he needs help up front to keep him upright.
Pick 22 – Tennessee Titans – Greg Newsome II Northwestern Corner
The Titans lost two corners in free agency and made one signing. The Titans have a great offense and even with some regression with the loss of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith, they still have Derrick Henry. The Titans can control the clock with a better defense and just running the ball down defenses throats. That is the key to winning, game management.
Pick 23 – New York Jets – Travis Etienne Clemson RB
I think Etienne ends up here regardless. Even if the Phins pass on Harris at pick 18, I think the Jets go with Etienne who is a little better in the passing game. The smaller shifty back is the new NFL type. And knowing that the Steelers may take an RB forces the Jets hand here.
Pick 24 – Pittsburg Steelers – Jayson Oweh Penn State Defensive End
The Steelers would like an RB, but they will have that option of RB or Center with their second round pick. With it being too early for a center and the top two RBs off the board, they address their pass rush with the freakishly talented Oweh out of Penn State. Now this is a bit of a risk reward pick, but with how good the Steelers defense is, his flaws can be covered up. Having a great pressure up front should allow the Steelers defensive front to pressure and help control the QBs in their division.
Pick 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Christian Barmore Alabama Defensive Line
The Jaguars continue to take the best available. The Jaguars need help everywhere. That includes the defensive line. While they need O-line help for their new franchise QB, that can wait. The Jags will continue to take the best available the whole draft and hope it works out.
Pick 26 – Cleveland Browns – Zaven Collins Tulsa LB
The Browns added Jadeveon Clowney to their defensive front for one year. This means that the D-Line is just slightly less of a concern compared to the linebacker position. I would expect the Browns to take a D-End early in the draft, but it’s not with this pick. Collins is a good linebacker that will be a cornerstone to the Browns defense going forward.
Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens – Trevon Moehrig TCU Safety
The Ravens have to get a Wide Receiver, but with a good number of receivers still on the board, I think they wait to see what the Saints and Packers do. Moehrig falls this far in the draft simply because of the obsession over QBs and two RBs going “early”. I think this is a steal for the Ravens and a pick they have to make now because Moehrig might be a player a team trades up to get from the Saints or Packers. Whether the Saints want to admit it, they are in a mini rebuild and could use an extra third or fourth round pick now or in the future. The Packers are set, but with a late pick there is no reason the Packers shouldn’t trade back a few spots to pick up an extra third or fourth as well. Both teams are late first trade destinations, therefore the Ravens have to get their guy.
Pick 28 – New Orleans Saints – Elijah Moore Ole Miss WR
Moore and Joe Horn, both have unsportsmanlike conduct penalties for touchdown celebrations. Moore is a slot, he can go deep, he can work in the return game. These are all things the Saints need, and stuff Sean Payton likes, players that can do it all. Moore has moved up and down draft boards, but I think the Saints need to take pressure off of Michael Thomas, so Moore is the pick here.
Pick 29 – Green Bay Packers – Jamin Davis Kentucky Linebacker
The Packers need five things, WR, Center, Corner, OT, and Linebacker. Davis is the best available of this group of picks. Now the Packers should trade back here, get into the early second, maybe trade with the Jets for their early second and fourth. Then they could take a Center to replace Lindsey and follow up with a WR and double down on defense in the late third and early fourth. But If they stay here, Davis is the pick, he’s a great middle backer and can immediately help out the Packers.
Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills – Joseph Ossai Texas Defensive End
The Bills miss out on their running backs, so they address their defensive line. Big and long, he can help out the Bills defense. The Bills are set on offense, well sort of, but the defense needs help. The edge position is something the Bills are missing. And in a division that has young QBs and Cam Newton with not the best WR help, pressure is the answer.
Pick 31 – Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall Jr. LSU WR
The Ravens have to get Lamar his guy. Marshall provides a lot of upside. His speed and length are two things that make him a frontrunner to be a WR1 at the NFL level. With the Ravens lacking a WR1, and Hollywood Brown being a smaller WR, the Ravens need to match Hollywood’s speed and give their WR core some size. Another burner for Lamar will also open up more running lanes.
Pick 32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Levi Onwuzurie Washington Defensive Line
Now the Bucs should trade back, everyone is back this year. They need to just stock up and replace all the guys that will be leaving. The only flaw of the Bucs last year was when their D-Line was down, adding another able body that can push up the middle and plug a hole is a good late round pick. The Bucs could go anywhere with this pick, but a lineman is most likely the pick.
Now let’s assume these are how the picks go on day one.
Najee Harris – If Najee Harris goes to the Dolphins or Steelers he will likely be the first rookie in a dynasty league off the board.
Travis Etienne – If Etienne goes in the first, he is a top four pick, the only way Etienne falls in a dynasty draft is if he were to end up on a team like the Cardinals or somewhere he has to wait a little longer to be the starter.
Ja’Marr Chase – Chase is who I would take with the number 1 pick of a dynasty draft. Chase is going to be the WR1 on whatever team he goes to. His upside is worth the first pick.
Jaylen Waddle – Waddle is likely the fourth pick of rookie dynasty drafts. Waddle’s talent deserves to have him go in the top four, the problem is that he might end up on a team like the Eagles, Lions, or Giants. None of these landing spots are thrilling, but hopefully Waddle’s talent outshines his surroundings.
Kyle Pitts – Pitts is the next in line out of who is taken on day 1. But there are a lot of questions. The higher he goes the closer to pick 6 of a rookie draft he goes, but if he falls outside of the top 10 he might slide to the end of the first round.
Elijah Moore – Moore is a lot like Pitts, the fit really moves him up or down rookie drafts. If he is a day 1 pick, he could easily go as early as the sixth pick in a rookie dynasty draft. If Moore goes to a team like the Saints, Packers, or even Ravens, his draft stock skyrockets. A first for Moore is a great investment. While a second day pick for Moore is still great, it just means he’s more likely to be a late first compared to a mid-first pick of a dynasty draft.
Terrace Marshall Jr. – Terrace is the most exciting WR for mid to late round picks. Terrace provides the most upside out of the second tier of wide receivers. His size and speed are what QBs dream of. The problem is his landing spot, if he is a Raven, well you have to get him the ball. If he goes to the Packers, then he falls right into that 6-8 pick of a rookie draft.
Now we have some fun.
All the QBs. As teams make a push for QBs that just means more potential franchise QBs. Lawrence may get pushed into a top 10 pick. This may cause a chain reaction in dynasty drafts. I would assume Fields becomes an early second, Zach Wilson is a mid-second, and then Trey Lance falls into the late second round. I would think if QBs go on day one they go in the first two rounds of a dynasty draft. The franchise QB for the Jags, Jets, Falcons, Broncos, Patriots, Panthers, and maybe even the Bears, are all teams that need QBs, this means these guys are all starters in the second year of their career. These guys are worth a “reach: in a dynasty draft just because it can turn around your dynasty team in need of a QB.
That does it for the mock draft and how it will alter dynasty rookie drafts. All of these day one guys are people you need to look out for if you have a top 8 pick. I like drafts using 5 WRs, 3 RBs, and a tight end in those 8 picks. While 3 RBs might not go on day 1 of the draft, that first one of day 2 should round out those top 3 RBs in the rookie draft. Either way, get out a pen and pad, take some notes, enjoy the draft. Day 1 of the draft is the most exciting time for every NFL Team. Everyone have fun, cheer, cry, do whatever you have to do to get through one of the most exciting/emotional days of the NFL. Draft eve baby, let’s go!
Let’s Go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 