Good morning everyone, we take a look at who are the Sleepers and Busts for this year. It really comes down to who the biggest value is for a sleeper as well as a potential breakout player. Busts are just guys that are drafted either a round/round and a half early for those top end guys, or just guys that will miss later on. Let’s dive in and see what we are working with for this upcoming season. For adp we are using 12 team drafts.
Sleepers
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs – RB – Las Vegas Raiders
Right now Jacobs is projected to be a mid to late 3rd round pick. This is a huge slap in the face for a guy that finished as RB13 and RB8 the last two seasons. Now he’s projected to be somewhere between RB 18-22? I do not buy it one bit. Kenyan Drake is a great backup RB, great pass catching option. But so what. Jacobs is a workhorse, he can easily see 300 carries this year. When faced with a decision of Dobbins, Montgomery, Carson, Swift, Henderson, and Sanders, Jacobs should be in front of all those guys. If you are near the end of your draft order, Jacobs as a late second is an easy pick for me. You can have some flexibility here, WR, Jacobs, and then go RB again. Jacobs is an easy RB1 this year in my opinion, whoever gets him has a steal.
Raheem Mostert – RB – San Francisco 49ers and Melvin Gordon – RB – Denver Broncos
Now, Mostert was hurt all last year. Melvin Gordon finished as the RB14 last year. Mostert is currently going as a late 5th, Gordon in the 7th. Sure both of these RBs have rookies that are looking to take their spot. That is a next year problem. When filling out your roster, the draft may not go your way. Having either of these guys as your RB2 or Flex, a starting running back that will get touches, sign me up. Obviously Mostert’s injury history and Javonte Williams’ preseason reports are the risk here. But Mostert will receive touches, and a 7th rounder for Gordon means you aren’t risking much. These two have great value, and probably the last chance you have at a back that will receive touches.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins – WR – Baltimore Ravens
I say this with full disclosure I am not drafting him. But being surrounded by rookie WRs Watkins is the only receiver with experience on the Ravens roster. Now, Mark Andrews runs the show for targets in Baltimore. But when you get to the end of your draft and you don’t like who is left, take a shot on Watkins. He is someone that either booms or busts early on and then you can decide if he stays on your roster.
Nelson Agholor – WR – New England Patriots
All reports out of New England is that Agholor is the WR1 in New England. He’s paid like one. This is another last positional round pick. Get out a pen and paper and write down all the WR1s for a team you can draft at the end of a draft. Corey Davis is sneaking up a little earlier, and good luck figuring out who the WR1 is for the Lions or Raiders. Give me the lead guy for a team that will either use Cam and his rocket arm (best deep ball QB last year) or Mac Jones who at least looks the part as a safe QB. I like Agholor as an absolute steal in the draft this year. You will take him as a WR4/5 and he can easily surpass those WR3 options that you may find from the Jaguars and Bengals.
Bryan Edwards – WR – Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have a WR1 in Darren Waller, the tight end. But, we have no clue who the real WR1 will be for the Raiders. Ruggs has a shot and has a good chance at being the guy, but Edwards is undrafted in some leagues and likely available in all final positional rounds. Take a chance on Edwards as your last pick and just cut him if it doesn’t pan out. Edwards is no risk and all reward if it works out.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB – Washington Football Team and
Ben Rothlisberger – QB – Pittsburg Steelers
I pair these two for the same reason. No one is drafting them. Both have great weapons. I cannot see a scenario in which these guys don’t have great seasons. If you invest in positional depth and run out of options, and do not take a QB early enough, these two are great safe options. They might not win you weeks, but they will allow you to stay in games and rely on your positional guys.
Tight Ends
Adam Trautman – TE – New Orleans Saints
Now, I do not recommend using Trautman as your TE1 early. I just think that he is someone that you can use as a stash. The Saints without Thomas have very few options as pass catchers. Kamara is obviously going to be the leader of this offense, but there is plenty of room for Trautman to get some early receptions and get involved. If he receives targets Week 1 you may have yourself a steal, if not, well move on and chalk it up to low risk gamble.
Busts
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley – RB – New York Giants
I am avoiding Saquon at all costs. He’s too big of a gamble for a first round pick. In the limited amount we saw from Saquon last year the Giants cannot support him. It’s unusual that such a talent goes to waste, but without blocking and without a capable QB, Saquon is going to face a stacked box every week and he’s going to have to work too hard for yards. While he’s great, I just think too many weeks you will see a terrible production due to the Giants struggling. This is not a Saquon issue, it’s a Giants issue.
Myles Gaskin – RB – Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins backfield is almost undraftable for me. He’s a fourth round pick right now. I would rather take a shot on a veteran back or a WR here. Myles Gaskin is likely Devin Singletary last year, and that is a 7th Round value, not a 4th. So I will let Myles fall and then think about it, but where he is going now is way too high and will cost you.
David Johnson – RB – Houston Texans
The Texans have gone stated David Johnson is going to have a Duke Johnson role. I do not know what that means, but I know Ingram and Lindsay both received touches with the first team in the preseason. If I’m the Texans I go with the “youth” of Lindsay. I think Lindsay will have the best fantasy production from this backfield, but if you are relying on the Texans backfield you have a lot more to worry about.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones – WR – Tennessee Titans
I know I’m crazy, but I do not want Julio as my WR2. He’s an early fourth and ranked inside the top 20. While comparing Corey Davis to Julio is not fair, and I know that Jonnu Smith is gone, but I do not see the Titans offense supporting two Wide Receivers. At least not where Julio is going. If you draft Julio at his ADP you are passing on D.J. Moore, B. Aiyuk, and all Steelers WRs. I’ll take the upside of those guys rather than the limited receptions Julio will see. Again this is just me, but I will be avoiding Julio.
Ja’Marr Chase – WR – Cincinnati Bengals
Recency bias is why Chase is going as early as he is. He’s projected to be an early 6th. While everyone wants a steal like they had in Justin Jefferson last year, I don’t think Chase is it. The Bengals are dealing with a young team and Chase himself is a rookie (obviously). This offense has too many questions. While Chase ultimately is not a huge costs, he is either your WR2 or Flex option depending on your draft. I would much rather take a shot on a player that has shown NFL production. Claypool, Cooks, Chark, and even Deebo Samuel all have NFL stats you can look back on and feel somewhat comfortable with. Chase just provides too much risk here. Yes, I know Burrow was out the large majority of the season, but Tee Higgins was the WR26 last year. That is probably the ceiling for whoever the Bengals WR1 is, which could be Higgins again. I expect the Bengals to be bad and Chase to have a good year for a rookie, but not for fantasy.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovalioa – QB – Miami Dolphins
I think all the QBs that are ranked as QB1s are appropriate. However, I promised busts, so Tua is my pick. I don’t think Tua should be ahead of Baker, Big Ben, Fitz, and even Cam Newton. All of these guys will finish ahead of Tua. I’m not sure how the Dolphins will get it done this year, but I expect low scoring games all year. Sure, Tua is coming off of a great preseason performance, but if I’m looking for a dip and dunk QB, I’m taking Big Ben.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts – TE – Atlanta Falcons
Now this is just in general, it’s not Dynasty related. I would love Pitts on my Dynasty team. However, Pitts is going in the 4th/5th Round. Maybe next year, but I am not going to spend up to get a rookie when all the proven tight ends are gone. If you want to take Pitts in the 8th, sure, I wouldn’t but you risk less. The 4th and 5th rounds are crucial rounds to find your last productive RB or your WR2. I will not pass up any of those options there to take a gamble on a rookie Tight End for a bad team.
Well that does it for Sleepers and Busts. Draft season is upon us, so best of luck in your drafts. We are gearing up for the Week 1 preview, until then I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.
Let’s Go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 