Good morning everyone, welcome to the Pot Cakes Dynasty League Week 14 Preview. What a week we have. This is it the final week. We have 1 playoff spot up for grabs. It can get interesting. We also have some issues at the top pending how things shake out. Let’s just get into it, GOTW, matchups, Professor Pickum and we will run through a playoff picture/playoff rankings.
Game of the week.
v.
Touchdown Guy v. CrossFit
Yes, this is all the drama. TDG is currently the 3 seed and CrossFit is the 2 seed. The only way TDG can change his see is by winning. CrossFit can go down to the 3 seed with a loss and can go up with a win, JD3 loss and 5 points on JD3. TDG can also jump up to 1 with a win, JD3 loss and 35 points on JD3. It all has to start with a win for one of these two teams. These two teams have been putting up big points the last few weeks and are heating up at the right time. CrossFit is a 15 point favorite right now. TDG has the Tall Josh Allen, CrossFit has the hot Dak. TDG has Henry and Jacobs. CrossFit has Mostert and CMC. These are some heavy hitters. The WR room is up there too. TDG has Evans, Godwin, Kupp and Puca. CrossFit has Cooper, Lockett, St. Brown and Deebo. TDG has Kittle and CrossFit has Kelce. This is going to be a heavyweight bout. Cannot wait to see how it shakes out. I’m going to give the slight edge to CrossFit just on QB play, but this is anyone’s ballgame.
v.
Teach v. Trashman
This game also has a lot on the line. The best odds of movement on the playoff picture. A Trashman win could kick Teach out of the offs. This is hot hot hot. Will Trashman set his lineup? Teach has the Tua/Hill/Waddle trio. Teach has Hock, Mixon and Pollard. Trashman probably lost Lawrence, probably Christian Watson too and who knows about Aaron Jones. Well, looking at this lineup, I think this is over. Trashman has Zack Moss, Sam LaPorta and Pacheco. Trashman needs a miracle and for the Dolphins to stink. I don’t think it happens. Teach is going to be like a 30 point favorite roughly. Teach is going to win by a lot more than that.
v.
PeePaw v. Daddy Wombat
PeePaw needs to win to keep the hopes alive. Daddy Wombat is out of it. All PeePaw can do is win and this will be a streak of about four wins for PeePaw if he misses the playoffs. Herb, Monty, Lamb, Rice, Adams and J.J. I don’t see how PeePaw can lose this matchup. D.W. has Hurts, Kamara, Metcalf and two roster spots to fill in with Dell on IR and Rondale Moore on bye. PeePaw is a 40 point favorite and will shrink to about 24 if a lineup is set. Valliant effort by PeePaw on the year, but things are not looking good. PeePaw gets it done this week.
v.
Batman v. Mush’s Mongrels
The rest of the matchups are pretty boring. Batman is currently in the playoffs. He plays a team that faces a lot of byes this week. Batman has Kyren Williams and Achane and Lamar. Batman wins this one by 100 (currently a 60 point favorite).
v.
Pistol v. Bruce
Pistol is in the playoffs. Win or lose it does not matter. Bruce is still a coward.
v.
Bottom Bunk v. JonnyDIII’s Joyful Demons
Bottom Bunk could pull off as spoiler. JD3 needs to lose to give CrossFit or TDG hope. I don’t think it will matter, B.B. has Breece and Bijan who have only underperformed all year. JD3 has two concerns in his lineup with Cade Otton and Singletary. The rest of the lineup is good, JD3 has a huge advantage at QB. B.B. has Mayfield and JD3 has Mahomes. JD3 gets the win and locks in the 1 seed. JD3 is going to be a 40 point favorite come kickoff.
That does it for the matchups, now we get into the picks.
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Good morning class, we have out 11th study guide for Professor Pickum.
The Professor is a real dummy not picking the over in the TNF game despite laying out in the write up way it would probably hit. So this week’s theme is to not overthink. K.I.S.S.
So without further ado, here’s my minimal thinking plays:
- Indianapolis -1 @ Cincinnati
- Hypothesis:
- Colts on a roll w/ Minshew Mania and I expect a letdown from Cincy
- Houston -3 @ New York Jets
- Hypothesis:
- Jets haven’t covered since October 15th and I don’t expect that to change with them going back to Zach Wilson
- Buffalo @ Kansas City -1.5
- Hypothesis:
- I think this is a great bounceback opportunity for KC at home
Professor Pickum is 21-11 overall.
We are doing a drawn out power rankings by running through the playoff picture.
1 Seed – JD3 has to collapse against a bum in B.B. to give up the spot. JD3 has a game on CrossFit and TDG and 5 points and 35 on each respectively.
2 Seed – CrossFit has to win, JD3 has to lose and CrossFit needs 5 points to move up. CrossFit’s win or loss against TDG will determine if he’s 2 or 3 as well.
3 Seed – Touchdown Guy is locked in at the 3 seed and can move up to 2 with a win and move up to 1 with a win and 35 points on JD3.
4 Seed – Pistol just needs to win to keep this spot. The only way Pistol realistically loses this spot is if he loses and Teach wins as Teach has a 100 point advantage.
5 Seed – Teach needs to win to stay here, win and a Pistol loss puts Teach at 4. Teach loses and a PeePaw win he falls to 6 if Batman loses too, or falls out if PeePaw wins and Batman wins.
6 Seed – Batman wins and stays here. If Batman wins and Teach loses Batman goes up to 5. If Batman loses and PeePaw wins then he falls out.
7 Seed – PeePaw needs to win and hope Teach or Batman lose. That is his only shot at the 5/6 seed. If PeePaw loses and Trashman wins he drops one spot. PeePaw if left out of the playoffs will have the 13th pick after he goes on a run in the consolation bracket. PeePaw will not lose in the consolation bracket.
8 Seed – Trashman technically can still get in with a win, PeePaw loss and 260 points on Teach. That is not happening. Trashman is guaranteed a first round consolation bye as long as D.W. doesn’t outscore him by 40.
9 Seed – Daddy Wombat can only move up a spot if Trashman loses and D.W. scores 40 more than Trashman. D.W. goes down a spot if B.B. wins and Trashman loses.
10 Seed – Bottom Bunk is out of the playoff pick. B.B. is locked into this spot 1) because B.B. is not winning, 2) because he is not going to outscore D.W. by 250 points if he matches. B.B. loss does nothing to his seeding.
11 Seed – Bruce has this locked in, won’t go anywhere.
12 Seed – Mush’s Mongrels has this locked in and is not going anywhere.
That’s all she wrote right now on the regular season previews. We will follow up with the recap and where everyone ends up. Should be a good week. I personally think nothing changes. The only realistic change is the 2/3 seed. We will see how things shake up after the week. Until then I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.
Let’s Go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 