Good morning everyone, welcome to the Pot Cakes Dynasty League Week 5 Preview. We have entered the bye weeks. This is where depth comes into play, it will be interesting to see which teams are impacted by the byes. We also have arguably the most important game of the week, matchups, and Professor Pickum returning on back to back perfect weeks.
Game of the week.
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Mush’s Mongrels v. Trashman
Yes, both teams are yet to win, but this game is crucial for next years first pick. Mush is familiar with this territory having taken Maserati Marv first last year. Mush is looking to repeat. Marv is the only legit player on his roster for this year. Trashman has Sam LaPorta, but he’s on bye. This is the perfect storm for Trashman. Nick Chubb is still on IR. This leaves Trashman with his star athletes being Jordan Addison, Rico Dowdle, and Tutu Atwell. These players are not the best, but collectively, not bad. The draft order for non-playoff teams is determined by each teams optimal score. So this win or loss isn’t as important. A little tidbit for teams that have nothing but the draft to look forward to, would be to structure their roster to limit their optimal score. A teams biggest swing in optimal score usually comes from the QB spot. Mush only has A-Rodg on his roster, Trashman has Danny Dimes, J-Love, T-Law, and Bryce Young. While I think Mush wins the week, Trashman’s optimal score should win costing him the 1.01. Mush is like a 13 point favorite if Trashman fills out his roster.
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Bruce v. CrossFit
Bruce is undefeated, CrossFit has put up solid numbers all year. This is a chance for CrossFit to get a big win. Bruce is rocking Jayden Daniels, JT, Najee, Braelon Allen, D.J. Moore, Zay Flowers, Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Juann Jennings. The Braelon Allen TD watch will be what is important for Bruce. Allen will be a solid RB in the league, but his fantasy production really depends on being a TD vulture. CrossFit has Dak, Rachaad White, Amari Cooper, Deebo, Rasheed Shaheed, Lockett and Kelce. CrossFit has the volatile players that can win or lose a week. The problem for CrossFit is that Ekeler is questionable, the RB spot for CrossFit is not the best. CMC is on IR, Barkley is on bye, and Cordarrelle Patterson has a questionable tag. Sunday will be interesting for CrossFit to see how he fills that RB2 spot. Bruce is a 9 point favorite and I think somehow gets to 5-0.
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PeePaw v. Pistol
PeePaw is just having bad luck. The guy cannot catch a break. The start of the season has been rough and it is not getting any better facing a hot Pistol team. PeePaw has Kamara, Lamb, Aiyuk, and Justin Jefferson. Charbonnet now has to compete with Kenneth Walker. Davante Adams will be out after requesting a trade. Rashee Rice is likely headed to IR. This is likely going to put PeePaw in a huge hole despite having a solid roster. Pistol has a very solid, steady team. Stroud, Jerome Ford, Jordan Mason, Sutton, G-Wil, Jayden Reed, Kincaide, and Kenneth Walker. The swing from Charbonnet to Walker will be the matchup to watch. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks will also be one to watch. Pistol has the better guy in each individual matchup. Pistol is a 7 point favorite. I think the solid QB and better individual matchups will swing Pistol’s way and he gets it done this week.
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Batman v. Bottom Bunk
You know what helps after your first loss on the year, facing a team that is bad. Batman is looking for justice against Bottom Bunk. Batman has Lamar, Hubbard, Kyren, James Cook, Achane, Diontae Johnson, and Olave. Bottom Bunk has Baker, Breece, Bijon, Drake London, and Pickens. Bottom Bunk needs to set his lineup, but Batman still should be about a 9 point favorite going into the weekend. I think Batman has more tools in his belt this week, Bottom Bunk is going to have to rely on his bench, I’ll always favor the team that has a more complete team. Batman has that and I think he gets it done.
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Daddy Wombat v. Teach
Daddy Wombat has made some good plays this season, but it should not matter against Teach. Teach needs a win in the worst way. D.W. has Metcalf, JSN, and Xavier Worthy. Teach has Aaron Jones, Stevenson, Tyreek, Mixon, and B-Rob. The biggest swings are that D.W. is starting Jeremy McNichols and Kyle Juszczyk. D.W. needs TDs from those guys. It is not looking good for D.W. Teach is a 30 point favorite and should get it done.
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Touchdown Guy v. JonnyDIII’s Joyful Demons
This is actually a sneaky big matchup this week. TDG has been lead dog a couple times this year. JD3 has had lead dog stolen from him by TDG. Little bit of a rivalry here, a lot of respect, but still a rivalry. TDG has the tall Josh Allen who has looked good and bad. JD3 has Mahomes who has only looked below average. TDG has D-Train who has returned to form, JD3 has Singletary who has over performed. TDG has Conner who is reliable, JD3 has Etienne who is banged up. TDG has Josh Jacobs who is a load, JD3 has Terry McLauren who he’s looking to unload. TDG has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who have the #1 fantasy QB throwing them the ball, JD3 has Diggs and Nico with Nico being WR1 on the year. TDG has Higgins, JD3 has Chase. TDG has George Kittle who can put up big numbers and JD3 has Colby Parkinson who is a clear step down. With all that in mind, TDG is about a 12 point favorite. It will be a close one this week, hopefully we see a lot of points out of these two teams, but TDG has the edge in all but 3 positions on the week.
Professor Pickum is back. Following another perfect week of 3-0, let’s check out this weeks Study Guide.
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Week 5 Study Guide
Six in a row. The haters are sick. What else is there to say? I’d like to stay grounded… After all, if I had LOST six in a row, I’d be saying I’m the most due person in the world. But I didn’t lose six in a row. I WON six in a row. So, I might never lose again! Just kidding. Stay humble, stay focused, but also why not just 3 more in a row? Why not us?
The System plays continue to systematically play. We’d be crazy not to continue to tap into them, but id be lying if I said this card wasn’t a bit leaner than what we’ve had to choose from the last two weeks. One system has not only been a perfect 3 for 3 on the year, but it’s given us 3 dogs who ended up winning outright in easy fashion:
- Public Fade after Abysmal Loss
- In the last (now) 272 NFL matchups in which a team comes in having scored less than 10 points in their previous matchup AND in which their opponent is the public favorite (30%+ of betting differential) that team covers the spread 61% of the time. The Panthers and Broncos are the two most recent success stories from this system, both won outright last week.
- I like our chances of that happening again this week as a BAD MAAAAAN returns to face a familiar foe albeit this time on foreign soil.
New York Jets +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings
We will tap into a hot system for our next pick. 4 in a row for:
- Road Dogs, Low Total after Bad (Previous) Season:
- Teams with a previous season win total of 6 or less are 373-266-16 all time ATS in games where they are catching 6.5 points or less and the game O/U is 50 or less
- Not only have the last 4 of these dogs covered, they’ve won outright.
- This week we have the Giants +6.5 and Panthers +4 to choose from.
- I’ll go with the team that doesn’t have to fly coast-to-coast in this one, give me the Panthers to keep this game close enough in a letdown spot for the Bears
Carolina Panthers +4 @ Chicago Bears
- We haven’t played this system yet, and thankfully so as it’s gone 3-3 on the year, under the all-time average of 57% of the time.
- 3-3 on the year doesn’t give me supreme confidence, but we do have some contributing trends that helps me to hold my nose and fire away:
- This year, Road Dogs have covered 58%
- Additionally, Dogs of 5.5 or more are covering near 85% (including some outright winners)
- Stinky pick of the week will be the Cards +7.5
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 @ San Francisco 49ers
Professor Pickum is now 9-3 on the year. When the board is a little more family friendly, Professor Pickum will sprinkle in a few bonus picks, he’s earned that leeway after back to back perfect weeks.
Now for an all new power rankings.
Batman and CrossFit ultimately just lost, the other teams won, that is the reason for the big drops at the top.
We are gearing up for another exciting weekend of sports. There is football every day for a lot of days coming up, fun for all. Enjoy some football and I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.
Let’s Go!
JonnyDIII
DIII Digest 