DIII Digest

Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well. We are going to dive into the Week 2 Preview for the Pot Cakes Dynasty League. If you listen closely you can hear Whiskey Lullaby playing faintly as I type from the bottom of the power rankings. We will look at games, and can Dr. Tilt keep prescribing good picks? Before you set an appointment please check your local, county, state, country, gaming, and other laws to see if gambling is allowed and available near you.

Let’s dive into things, we have our game of the Week.

The game of the Week is Batman heading to workout against CrossFit.

vs.

Two of the top three scorers Week 1 face off in this Week 2 juggernaut of a matchup. Batman is hoping that his team is more than just touchdown dependent. He will need big showings out of Lamar Jackson, Ronny Jones, Juju, and Bob Woods. CrossFit is spotting Dak, CMC, Ekeler, and Cooper Kupp to see if they can max out again. This faceoff between Kupp and Woods will be better than the movie. Can Batman get Swift, Miller, and Shenault to produce again? Can CrossFit just put his feet up and let Amari Cooper and Mostert score chalk and cruise to another easy win? The game of the week doesn’t always finish as a nail biter, sometimes you schedule a prime time game and as the season goes on one team separates itself from everyone. This is must see Fantasy App, I’ll be refreshing this one all Sunday. CrossFit the early favorite by 35 points, I’ll take CrossFit in a blowout.

Other matchups we have are Daddy Wombat going on a field trip to Teach.

 vs.

Daddy Wombat is coming off a HOT game. Their ceiling is unlimited as Russ gets under center. Gurley looks like a decent play each week, and Kamara and D-Hop both are absolute locks. D-Hop is taking on 40+% of the target share in Arizona, and is a must have. Teach is hoping to get more production out of Mixon and Ingram. Rodgers should take on another Divisional foe with ease. The interesting plays are for Teach with Carson to see if he can keep the TD production on few touches. Daddy Wombat is hoping Will Fuller can stay healthy, because he is a lock for 6+ catches. This is another top end matchup, both of these teams in the top end of the power rankings, this matchup already has playoff implications. Daddy Wombat is a 2 point dog, and my dogs are barking. I’m upset from last week so I’m picking Daddy Wombat over Teach out of spite.

Bruce is swimming with his head on a swivel as he takes on Pistol this week.

 vs.

Both teams are starving for a win. Bruce put up a solid fight last week, as Matty Ice put up 450 yards through the air. Zeke displayed a new belly tattoo and now Jonathan Taylor looks to be the RB1 for the Colts due to the unfortunate injury to Marlon Mack. I’m pulling for Marlon Mack who’s in a contract year and facing a tough free agent market. Chark and Godwin also are wading in the weeds for Bruce. Pistol is hoping Murray can continue to tear up defenses. Mikey T and OBJ need to figure it out, misfires from these two are a big part of why Pistol is looking for his first win. Bruce could see a plus in Emmanuel Sanders depending on Mikey T’s injury. For Pistol Hunt and Hines both could be the hot hand to be the RB1 for their respective teams. Pistol is a 10 point dog right now and I think the safety stays on. OBJ trade rumors and Mikey T injury scare me worse than Bruce, I’ll swim with the sharks and go with Bruce.

Another two guys looking for wins, Touchdown Guy is taking on PeePaw.

 vs.

A big trade took place just today. Touchdown Guy is sent AJ Brown to PeePaw for Melvin Gordon. One in need of an RB and one in need of more experienced WRs. This is the matchup to watch as each manager could be missing out on what they had. TDG needs Barkley to play like a top pick. TDG also needs the Falcons to continue to chuck the rock as Julio and Calvin Ridley could be the best duo in fantasy. PeePaw is looking to keep production out of Davante Adams. D-Train is still going to run through people, it just takes a couple quarters. PeePaw needs one rookie WR to find the end zone to give him a boost. Touchdown Guy is the 8 point favorite. I’ll take TDG as he has more experienced guys, PeePaw will see more out of AJ Brown this week than TDG will of Gordon, but TDG still gets the win.

Mush’s Mongrels taking on Bottom Bunk.

 vs.

I do not trust either team. Mush is so young and had breakout games from Josh Jacobs and CEH. Josh Jacobs is good, but can he keep getting 30 point games? I do like Antonio Gibson having more production this week. Bottom Bunk needs Watson to keep playing well and every now and then getting the ball to David Johnson. Dalvin needs to start Cooking for B.B. and will have a tough matchup against the Colts. M. Brown v. M. Brown will be interesting. Mush hoping Hollywood shines in the bright lights of Houston. While B.B. is hoping Malcolm Brown continues to snuggle up in the end zone receiving all of the goal line carries for the Rams. B.B. also has Royce Freeman tucked away in his taxi, after a big week he may be looking to trade. Bottom Bunk is favored by 15, and I expect B.B. to tuck Mush in after a long weekend of fantasy football.

Lastly, we have JonnyDIII’s Joyful Demons taking on Trashman.

 vs.

Neither of these guys want to be here. JonnyDIII had every player but Stefon Diggs underperform. Trashman wanted more from Chubb and Akers. Maybe Mike Evans is healthy and can take JonnyDIII out of the dump. Mark Andrews is looking to be the greatest tight end to ever grace the fields of fantasy football. This is my favorite QB matchup, JonnyDIII has Patty Mahomes and Trashman has Cam Newton. These two QBs play the game differently but both don’t blink, pay for the whole seat and only use your feet, absolutely must watch. One of these two teams are going to have to win, maybe, just maybe it will launch them out of the bottom of the ranks. JonnyDIII is favored by 4, I can’t make this pick. (Life is a Highway is playing in the background as I cry being last in the league)

Now we have some picks.

Again ***Please check your local, county, state, country, gaming, and other laws to see if gambling is allowed and available near you.

Dr. Tilt. has his prescription for the week.

San Francisco 49ers -7 @ New York Jets

Now I know what you’re thinking….  “Doc, you’re telling me to take the points for a west coast team traveling all the way east for a 1:00pmEST start time!  That’s like 4:00am PST or something!”  Well guess what, the J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS! STINK!  San Francisco is rightfully upset they let week 1 slip away at home and if I could get odds on it, I’d also bet Adam Gase first coach fired.  Don’t overthink this week is going to be the common theme.

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Over 51.5

There’s some stat that going 0-2 is pretty much a death sentence for your playoff hopes.  (No, I’m not going to look up that stat for you.). Do you know how you avoid going 0-2?  Scoring more points than your opponent in week 2.  Dallas has injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  Atlanta got torched at home defensively by Seattle.  You have two motivated dome teams, playing in a dome, looking for their first win.  Expect points.

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers

Some would argue a road game for KC @ LAC with no fans is actually a disadvantage considering if there were fans it’d probably be 70% in the red and gold.  That said, does the defending Super Bowl champs returning almost all of their starters, with the best quarterback on the planet, adding CEH (who looked awesome W1), with extra rest, sound like they are 9 points better than Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers (who should have lost to Bengals)?  The Doc can see you nodding.  Vegas gets cute early in the season.  Through two weeks we don’t have a single double-digit line.  It’s time to stack units before they catch-up.  This line opened at -5.5.  Unfortunately, this blog drops on Wednesday so your being prescribed it at -8.5.  My guess is it gets to -10 by kickoff.  Grab it as quickly as you can.

***BONUS PICK***

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers -5.5

When Dr. Tilt goes 3-0 in Week 1 YOU get a bonus pick, thems the rules.  Now listen, in full transparency Dr. Tilt is a Green Bay Packers fan.  A lot of thought went into this.  The Doc doesn’t want to be a “homer” and always tell you to bet the Packers.  However, if week 1 is any indication, we’re getting the “Aaron Rodgers (this word has been removed by the editor) You Revenge Tour Theory” or ARFYRTT for short.  I don’t expect that theory to be busted at home in week 2 against the Detroit Lions (Matt Patricia is my second-best bet for first coach fired BTW).  Do as you please, but one more week like last week and the ARFYRTT bandwagon might just be full. 

Last Week: 3-0

Season Record: 3-0 

That does it for this week’s preview. Stay tuned for Tuesday’s recap and updated power rankings. We are still on the look for a trophy name and game of the week sponsor, if you have anything to offer let me know. Lastly, power rankings will be posted on insta as well, check it out @jonnydiiifootball. I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow. And football is still back baby.

Let’s Go!

JonnyDIII

Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well. Wow, football is upon us. Your drafts are finishing up, players are being cut and signed, making you question sixth round picks like Ronny J and an eighth round pick in Kenny J. It is tough to be a J right now, but we’re built different, just like the teams at the top of this week’s power rankings.

1. Trashman

Trashman had the best draft and now he has one of the top scores heading into Week 1 (not saying the exact number, tune into Wednesdays Week 1 Preview). He does have some questions in his lineup, like who Wentz throws to and if Cam Akers is real. But no one wants to take out the trash so I’m not going to. I’m going to trust the numbers, I’m going to trust Mark Andrews, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Allen Robinson, and Kenny Golladay to all perform well. Entering Week 1 70% of the world is covered by water, Trashman is trying to have the rest be a landfill.

2. Bruce

I know, this surprises me too. I understand that my journalistic integrity is on the line with a take so spicy even a big wave couldn’t cool it down. But the numbers are in and Bruce is actually top shark this week. I do not believe it, but the computer likes Matty Ice, JT, Fournette, Zeke (duh), Jules, Godwin, Chark, and even Emmanuel Sanders. There are a lot of questions, like if JT will get 50% of the touches, let alone week 1 touches, same thought but Fournette, and if the Saints can pass the ball to someone other than Mikey T, but the computers will be in charge one day so I’ll let them have this one.

3. Touchdown Guy

Touchdown Guy is a guy that I am going to look back at his draft and wonder why he wasn’t graded higher. He had the steal of the draft in Calvin Ridley, has Keenan Allen, and A.J. Brown. I will default and say I was looking at longevity as some older players like Le’Veon Bell and Jared Cook are on his team. I think Bell’s week 1 projections are a touch low just do to the volume he will receive this year, but overall this team is hot hot hot.

4. Teach

School is in session and someone is about to learn a lesson. (Teach feel free to use as a slogan) SPOILER…. I’m someone. I gave Teach a bad grade and maybe have him for week 1 (check out this Wednesday’s Week 1 Preview to find out) I think a lot of Teach’s expected points are inflated as the numbers for Rodgers are high considering a shift in the Packers offense and the fact that Minnesota’s defense is good. BUT Teach still has some flexibility on what he wants to do as a starting lineup goes and needs to see if Devante Parker is healthy for kickoff. Teach is looking to earn a gold star and move up the rankings.

5. JonnyDIII Joyful Demons

I have to give credit where credit is due, our commissioner added the razzle to the dazzle of our/his fantasy football league by going with a mascot, he’s Ray J, look for his team name below (way down). My team is the purple demon smiling emoji in your phone. I do not need to explain my team a lot, I need to find a kicker and with the last bit of preseason waiver wire money I have, I’m all in on a certain guy. The most expensive kicker waiver signing in league history. Whether it is the right move or not, I have Corey Davis in my lineup and am going to die on that horse if I have to. The biggest thing for me is a need for Kenny Drake and James Conner to pull through. If those two perform well, it’s over for the rest of the league.

6. Bottom Bunk

Another shocking ranking, but the numbers are doing a lot of the talking. I think Bottom Bunk will be put to bed after this week, but as of now he has no curfew. The computer has Deshaun Watson as QB3 this week, and that’s where my personal rankings put him, but is that too high, are all these QB projections too high? David Johnson, TY, and Mickey P (Michael Pittman) are those all too high? We will have to find out. Bottom Bunk when there are no byes, his lineup is not too shabby, but as the bye weeks come in his lineup will wobble like a top bunk.

7. Pistol

Pistol is looking to shoot up the power rankings. He will likely have to do so through trade or waivers because his team misfired on one position. This position is something he should hold near and dear to him as he made a living tackling and then living with the position (while sometimes tackling), that position is the running back position. His only saving grace is that it’s half ppr and his RBs love to catch the rock. Kareem Hunt and James White will hold their worth, the question is if Jordan Howard will be the Phins lead back. Missing out on RBs may shoot Pistol in the foot for years to come. Luckily, Mikey T, OBJ, Kelce, and the up and coming Sutton should give Pistol the arsenal he needs to win some games.

8. CrossFit

CrossFit is not about to flex his muscles this early in the season. But he has a few lifts that are absolutely mind blowing. Dak, CMC, Ekeler, and Cooper Kupp, are going to lift his team all year. The problem is that while those players do the heavy lifting, his other players will need multiple spotters. Rex Burkhead? Audrey Tate? The bar is not too high there. Free membership the first month to anyone who wants to start on this roster. CrossFit needs his heavy lifters to max out every week. We will see if CrossFit hits his PR and can move up the rankings next week.

9. Daddy Wombat

Daddy Wombat has some veteran guys that could do well. D-Hop, Kamara (is now staying put), Gurley (has a new place), and some rookies that could pan out. It looks like his vets might be under projected, and his younger guys might be over projected. I hope Daddy Wombat likes seesaws because their season is going to be a ride this year. Each player will go up and down, but the ride is the best part. Daddy Wombat really needs Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to go into an air it out offense. If that happens Daddy Wombat will be pushed in the right direction and on the upswing.

10. PeePaw

Week 1 is an uphill battle for PeePaw. The computer does not like Baker, Marlon Mack, and the rookie wide outs. The computer likes Melvin Gordon and Devin Singletary, which is maybe a stretch. PeePaw needs Baker to get out of his slump, needs his rookies to see some targets, and needs D-Train to have another rushing title. PeePaw needs some breaks, he needs the rookies to take over and this may be a tough year for him. Year 2 looks more promising, but for now he may have his tapioca pudding lumps.

11. Batman

Batman is in for some tough times. Ronny Jones is, well, we don’t know what he is. His goal line touches are likely gone, and when does Fournette take over? Miles Sanders has some soft tissue injuries, and he needs WR2s to break out. Dede Westbrook and Anthony Miller, one of those guys will need to break out. Maybe Bryce Love breaks out and is someone that Batman can plug into his lineup. But Batman needs a Robin and right now I don’t know where he is going to find him.

12. Mush’s Mongrels

Mush had a 10/10 idea coming up with mascots. That is the only thing that has gone his way. Sure, he is waiting to put a kicker in his lineup, but he still has the projected lowest score, by a decent margin. How low is it? Come back Wednesday for the Week 1 Matchup Preview. The Mongrels are made up of a lot of guys who aren’t even the #1 on their team. The Mongrels are strictly upside guys. Even his starters like CEH and Hollywood Brown need to have good years. Mush could start two QBs in this league and his projection would still not be great. Tough sledding ahead, Mush needs Week 1 to go his way to get him off of the bottom spot.

That’s the power rankings for Week 1. See you Wednesday for the Week 1 Previews, who will beat who. Week 1 is going to be crucial for a number of reasons. Week 1 needs a league name and we need a sponsor for the league trophy. If you want to be our sponsor hit me up. Football is near and that is all I need in this world. I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.

Let’s Go!

JonnyDIII

Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well. Today we are going to look at some deep sleepers. I’m talking double digit round picks that will be big breakouts (hopefully). Each fantasy team has about two picks you can reach with. Try and grab an upside RB, WR, TE. I am looking at guys that are 60+ in their positional ranking for WR and RB, and for TE’s it’s really just anyone beyond TE12. Here are my Deep Hibernation Picks by position.

Running Backs:

1. Bryce Love – Washington – RB 67

Death, taxes, and the Washington Football Team being a mess. AP is old, Gibson is a novelty, McKissic is a possibility, but Love was an investment. I feel like the draft pick used on Love needs some return. I think they want an every down back, Love is the better option for that over Gibson. With the team being bad you really have two options, 1) is run AP into the ground, and 2) try and have your young guys play together. Love is a double digit round pick, he’s worth the gamble. If after a couple weeks he is seeing no time, he’s the top of your list to cut. But if the Washington Football Team makes the move to have Love be a starter, then he’s an absolute steal.

• Sony Michel – New England – RB 61

Injury and a decent showing by Harris has Michel plummeting in fantasy drafts. The New England backfield is a group effort, but Michel took the lead the last two years. While James White has ppr value, Michel’s value now is laughable, if he plays. The injury is the big question, but a healthy Michel, even if that happens week 3, the value is too good to pass up with you last skill position pick. Michel has the capability to be a quality RB, he’s just broken our hearts so many times. This year the heartbreak won’t be as bad, and I just want to feel something. I am going to try and get Michel in every draft, and he just is the first one on the chopping block if it doesn’t work out. Plus, my mom likes his name so pick him because of his cool name.

• Chris Thompson – Jacksonville – RB 77

This is if you are in some sort of PPR league. Thompson is a pass catching back, he’s been hurt his whole life. If we get who everyone wants Chris Thompson to be, he is worth the last pick. Jacksonville has issues at RB, and we do not know if Fournette is going to stay with the team, get traded, play less, who knows. All we know is that Thompson catches the ball and they brought him in for that reason. When you are at this point in the draft, you are either looking for a guy that may come on late, is a big handcuff, or can score points each week. Thompson is the guy that will score points each week, Jags will be behind and will have to pass the ball a lot this year. How much work Thompson gets we don’t know, but we do know he’s a great third down back.

Wide Receivers:

1. Allen Lazard – Green Bay – WR 66

Lazard came on late last season and has cemented himself as the WR2 for the Packers. The biggest red flag with Lazard is that the Packers are becoming a running team. His big body and being opposite of Adams should provide favorable matchups, and if you have a half step, Rodgers can put that ball there for you. Also, Adams has had injuries, and that’s why Lazard became an option, so if Adams goes down it’s Lazard. Three starts and three touchdowns last season, just shy of 500 yards, Lazard needs things to go his way, but there is plenty of room in Green Bay for someone to become the WR2 and all signs point to Lazard.

• Dede Westbrook – Jacksonville – WR 77

I like the Jaguars as the AFC Detroit Lions. The Lions find themselves in passing situations fighting for a .500 record. Westbrook had 101 targets last season and is a late pick. That’s value. He’s a part of the Jags offense, he just has to put it together better, and so does Minshew. Westbrook should have more yards and Minshew should complete more passes. Combine a little bit of both and Westbrook becomes a solid flex option in ppr/half ppr leagues. This year, Chark will receive a lot of attention, this should open up things for Westbrook the clear WR2 for the Jags.

• N’Keal Harry – New England – WR 62

Every Patriot is undervalued this year, but Harry is undervalued with some reason. We are hoping Harry breaks out this year, that he takes over as the WR1, or at least a possession WR/red zone guy. Cam made Kelvin Benjamin a good WR. Cam can make Harry a good WR. Harry was a rookie and is now hoping to play more, the Patriots do not have many options, let alone red zone options. Harry is worth the risk because he is a double digit round pick and will over perform because it’s the Patriot way.

Tight Ends:

1. Eric Ebron – Pittsburg – TE 18

Here you have a couple of vets, but you have no clue what they have left. Big Ben is coming off of injury, Ebron has had a career of injuries, will they click? The only things that are certain for Pittsburg is their defense, Big Ben throwing the rock a bunch, and James Conner running as long as he’s healthy. Juju had a good couple years, but now that he’s the guy, he’s been a let down. The WR2 position is wide open in Pittsburg. Ebron is in a perfect position to be the WR2 from the tight end position, he just has to stay healthy. Ebron is one of those names that you just think he’s going to be good this year, and finally the risk is worth the reward as you can take him late.

• Dawson Knox – Buffalo – TE 27

Pick Knox if you hate tables. I think Knox can blow up this year. The problem is that this is not really analytical based, it’s a feeling. Knox as a rookie had 50 targets, John Brown and Beasley both had over 100 targets. Now you add Stefon Diggs. If you are a defense you try and stop Diggs and let anyone else beat you. Maybe that opens up things for Knox, and maybe Allen has more trust in Knox with it being his second year. If you pass on Knox in the draft you can pick him up off waivers.

• Blake Jarwin – Dallas – TE 22

I think everyone is looking here. Jarwin steps into the role of Jason Witten. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense in football. Jarwin already had 41 targets last season with 31 receptions. Witten had 83 targets with 63 receptions. Witten has always been a target on 3^rd downs for the Cowboys, he always seems to just get the first down. Jarwin is guaranteed 65 targets this year. He’s young, explosive, he has not had the ability to show it yet. Being on the Cowboys offense Jarwin could easily sneak into that top seven TE position. Everything would have to go right for Jarwin, but that is well within reach.

Drafts should be wrapping up, hopefully you have some good picks are able to make a waiver move to sweep up a long shot fantasy player for your team. We are still working through logos on insta (@jonnydiiifootball) and are hoping to have a league name soon, still looking for a sponsor for the trophy name. Next week I think we will come out with the power rankings for the season and get ready for the season. That’s all for this week, I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.

Let’s Go!

JonnyDIII

Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well. You are probably confused about the title of today’s post. A Meal is something I gobble up if the pick is there, a Heel is a term in wrestling for someone you have to hate, the bad guy. I’m going to go through my Top Five Meals and Top Five Heels.

First, let’s eat.

For a meal it’s almost a treat, it’s something I force if I have to. Like a nice juicy burger, maybe I’m not hungry, but if you put that thing in front of me, I’m house calling that burg. Before I actually get hungry let’s get to it reverse order.

#5 – Cam Akers – Los Angeles (Rams)

Now this meal is a good quality meal. It’s not quite a sit down restaurant, boss is picking up the tab meal. But it’s a Thursday night with the boys for some beers and wings. Just a good time. Overall, Akers is fairly ranked. But I like him for one big reason. There’s no one else. Let’s look at some guys in his area. He’s ranked behind three rookies, CEH, Jonathan Taylor, and D’Andre Swift. The guys behind him all split time. Akers is on his own. If you look at rush attempts, Colts have 5 more attempts per game and the Lions have a half more carries per game. The Colts have a really solid starter or backup in Mack. The Lions might start Kerryon all year. Again, Akers is all alone. He will not beat CEH due to the passing aspect, but Gurley use to get some check downs. CEH a rookie, could easily drop a great deal from his ADP. Will Akers be able, or trusted, to be out on the field at all times, I don’t know. But he is for sure an RB2 or Flex I am eyeing up to get in rounds 5/6.

#4 – Jamison Crowder – New York (Jets)

This meal is that one craving you get, like a buffet every now and then. Has a chance to hit the spot, or could leave you empty, but my goodness is it cheap. Crowder is the only starting receiver returning for Darnold. He had over a 110 targets last year. His production for targets was lower than others in a similar situation. His ADP is 128 as WR 47. His ranking has him as the 31^st WR 1 for a team off the board and some #2 and  #3 wide receivers are ahead of him. I think this low of a ranking is something I pay for. All those targets and Darnold is healthy. I like Crowder as a WR 3, I think he ends in the low 30s, which is a big enough jump for me to take him a touch ahead of where he’s going. Maybe a 9^th round for sure a 10^th depending on what the board is leaving me.

#3 – D.J. Chark – Jacksonville

This is a Friday Night Fish Fry as it just hits the spot and never disappoints. Chark is WR23 and ADP 52 overall. Those right in front of him are Metcalf and Locket, no way both finish in front of him. But I am going to focus on A.J. Brown. Everyone loves A.J. Brown this year and he’s an absolute stud, but opportunity. Jacksonville averages 10 more passes a game than Tennessee. Chark had 118 targets and 73 receptions, Brown 84 targets and 52 receptions. The team identities are different. Titans, run, Jaguars, balanced/passing offense. Chark and Brown had similar receiving yards and tied for 8 touchdowns. Now, people think Brown will do more. Yes, his receptions will go up, but his yards, those do not have to go up. Tennessee runs the ball, the Jaguars throw the ball. Chark ended as a top end WR2 having missed a game. Chark will likely have better opportunity as Minshew is more familiar with the offense. The Jaguars overall will be better. The Titans should stay the same offensively. Last season, Chark finished 1 point behind Brown. Why Brown is at the top of the WR2 class and Chark is at the bottom makes no sense. I like Chark to have the same production as Brown if not better, at a much lower price. Chark is the guy you take because you can use Brown’s pick to get an RB or Kelce/Kittle to lock up your TE position.

#2 – Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods – Los Angeles (Rams)

One of my favorite meals is second breakfast. It is when you eat breakfast, and then eat it again. Kupp is WR 16 and Woods WR 24. Kupp finished WR 4 last year and Woods finished WR 17. Rams had a low Passing Touchdown total and the TDs went to Kupp. Woods can easily move up. And Kupp will likely finish lower than last year. Cooks and Gurley are both leaving receptions behind. Rams are a pass heavy offense. While I do not think Kupp and Woods can be an Evans and Godwin of last year, I do think a 7 and 14 finish for the two is very reasonable. With where they are going, this can be the ticket to winning your league. All in on doubling down on Kupp and Woods in your starting lineup.

#1 – Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas

You ever go to a really nice restaurant, order a steak and a twice baked potato. The whole thing is magical and you are ok with the money you spend on the meal because it’s something you cannot wait to have again. Josh Jacobs is a meaty running back that is only going to do more. Josh Jacobs finishing as the RB 4 behind CMC, Zeke, and Kamara or Saquon is very reasonable. Jacobs will get close to 300 touches. Raiders want Jacobs in the passing game. He was a rookie and tore it up, adding receptions to his fantasy production will make him elite. If the Raiders can do anything with their passing game, Jacobs will have less pressure and be able to run more freely. I want the late first pick so I can scoop Josh Jacobs.

These are some great meals, and calories do not count in fantasy.

Now let’s get the boo birds going. A heel is someone that you like but should not. The fantasy version of that is being picked above where you will finish, someone that will underperform their ADP this year and are guys that could cost you your fantasy championship hopes. Let’s ring the bell and bring on some heels.

#5 – Kenny Golladay – Detroit

Golladay reminds me of Rowdy Roddy Piper. Piper was a fan favorite for his incredible wrestling, hard work, and his mic ability. There is a lot of talk around Golladay this year, and I am having none of it. I have him as my WR 10, ADP puts him at WR 7, going right around the end of the second, start of the third. The problem for me, is that Golladay is going to be your WR 1 if you are the first through third pick overall. ADP has both of the top two QBs and TEs going before Golladay, so he could in theory sneak up to mid second round. If Golladay is your WR 1, you better have a good WR 2. I’m just a little worried with Golladay. Stafford is coming off an injury, invested in an RB. This is probably Patricia’s last chance. I see Patricia as a ground and pound. I think Golladay’s targets go down. I also guarantee his TDs go down. He led the league in 11 TDs, I don’t see it happening again. I mean I think Golladay is a lock for a top 20 WR, but how much higher can he climb than WR 7? I feel like he is somewhere between WR 10-14. While this is not a huge drop, I think he’s the top end WR that doesn’t live up to expectations.

#4 – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City

Hill is none other than the Rated R Superstar Edge. Edge always flirted with injury putting himself through some absolutely brutal matches. The risk/reward with Edge is a lot like Hill, but his ADP is set up for his reward, leaving only risk. Hill’s ADP is 10, and WR 3. This puts him in front of Julio Jones a reception machine, and DeAndre Hopkins. Hill does not stay healthy, when he did play 16 games in the last three years, he was WR 1. But that’s not enough for me with his risk. Taking him before Jones and D-Hop is not the right move. I have Mike Evans in front of him too. I just know that Hill is either going to miss a couple games or he’s just going to let you down a little. I cannot take him in the first where they have him going. The only strategy where I like Hill is if you go WR/WR. Hill will not produce as expected, but he still is a backend WR1, he’s just not the top end WR1.

#3 – Hunter Henry – Los Angeles (Chargers)

Henry reminds me of the Million Dollar Man, Ted DiBiase. DiBiase was a great wrestler who had the likes of Hogan, Jake the Snake, the Ultimate Warrior, Andre the Giant, Macho Man, and Dusty Rhodes in the mix. The Million Dollar Man was always a great attraction, but with other wrestlers around him the price of admission for the Million Dollar Man was the same as everyone else. Henry is currently the 6^th TE off the board going in the middle of the 6^th. Now that’s not a terrible time to take a tight end, but the middle tier tight ends are not the move this year. You can wait here. You can lock up a solid flex here. You can take a bad team’s RB1 or you can take a good team’s WR2 here. These are quality flex/bye week starters. If you miss here and take a tight end who has no one to throw him the ball, it will hurt you. Tight ends are the toughest position to hit on, and if you miss you have a problem. Between Tyrod and a rookie quarterback, I do not see Henry getting a ton of targets. I just think the Chargers regress and a position that will underperform is going to be Hunter Henry. I would wait and take a tight end with upside like Fant, Gesicki, Hurst, Hockenson or Smith. Take the flex/depth pick over H.H.

#2 – Melvin Gordon – Denver

Gordon is the JLB of Heels. He’s just someone that you’re not going to like for a long time. The holdout and now he is going to split carries with Lindsey. I think Gordon is a good running back and respect him for all he does, but he’s going in a position ahead of other clear cut starters. He’s going ahead of Conner, Bell, and Ingram. Bell and Conner are the workhorses for their team. Gordon you are hoping for better efficiency. Bell and Conner do not have a good running back behind them. Ingram is on a high powered offense. Gordon is on a very young football team. Gordon can only fall. Lindsey is beloved in Denver. Linsey is Daniel Bryan. He is who the people want. Denver has to give both time. It’s smart, as it will help the team, but also to appease the fans. Neither of those things helps fantasy fans. Gordon is a big time Heel this year, and I’m going to avoid at his price.

#1 – Dak Prescott – Dallas

Arguably the biggest heel was Stone Cold Steve Austin, the Texas Rattlesnake. Dak’s problems with Jerry Jones, aka Vince McMahon, on contract negotiations is the drama we love. The parallels are there, but Dak is not the football player that Stone Cold was as a wrestler. Dak is currently QB 3 and the 47^th pick. Dak almost had 5,000 yards last year. I do not see those numbers repeating. The Cowboys offense was electric last year. I think they still do well, but I do not believe that Dak will be the Fantasy Rattlesnake this year. Taking Dak a round earlier than Wilson, Murray, Watson, or rounds earlier than other QBs, and costing yourself a steal in Lockett, Allen, Chark, or Woods, would be a pick that will bite you. For Quarterbacks it’s Mahomes, Jackson, a round after ADP for those other second tier QBs, or just wait.

That does it for this week’s post. Hopefully you enjoy some meals and avoid some heels in your fantasy football draft. BIG announcement coming out later this week on insta, @jonnydiiifootball well it’s not that big but anyways tune in to find out. Next week I think I am going to begin hibernation and look at some deep sleepers. Good luck in your upcoming drafts. I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.

Let’s Go!

JonnyDIII

Good morning everyone, I hope this finds you well.

This will wrap up my top tens. I will leave the kickers up to you. We are taking a look at the tight end position. This is arguably the most frustrating position in fantasy football if you do not have an elite or middle tier guy. Then, if you wait too long you will have to play the waiver wire and hope for matchups, and that is not a fun time. For this position you want to look at the other weapons really, and how productive the offense is. If the tight end is the real #2 wide receiver, that’s a good tight end. If the team does not have any good wide receivers, then the tight end will provide the offense.  

Let’s look at some rankings as of now.

Fantasy Pros (Half PPR)	ESPN (PPR)
1.   Travis Kelce – Kansas City	Travis Kelce – Kansas City
George Kittle – San Francisco	George Kittle – San Francisco
Mark Andrews – Baltimore	Zach Ertz – Philadelphia
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia	Mark Andrews – Baltimore
Darren Waller – Las Vegas	Darren Waller – Las Vegas
Evan Engram – New York (Giants)	Evan Engram – New York (Giants)
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles (Chargers)	Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles (Rams)
Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles (Rams)	Hunter Henry – Los Angeles (Chargers)
Jared Cook – New Orleans	Austin Hooper – Cleveland
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay	Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay

ESPN and Fantasy Pros flip Cook and Hooper at 9 and 12 in their respective rankings. I like these rankings, I think they are solid. Tough to argue who is who, but let’s do it anyway.

#1 – Travis Kelce – Kansas City

This is an easy #1. Kelce is the best tight end in routes, and he’s on an offense that loves to throw the ball. He’s an absolute matchup nightmare. Kelce stays the #1 until the 49ers have to actually start passing the ball. In 2015 Kelce finished 7^th behind my sleeper Eifert, 2016, 2018, and 2019 #1 overall, 2017 #2 behind Gronk. I mean he’s the guy until he’s not, he’s got three years left at the top if he stays healthy. If you are at the end of the first, he might be worth in on the way back in the second. Tough to say. You just have to hammer the waiver early and pick up that sleeper young wide receiver. But Kelce, veins.

#2 – George Kittle – San Francisco

Kittle on average actually tied Kelce for the #1 on average fantasy points last season. Kittle obviously has downside in the opportunity category. The wide receivers for the 9ers are not great, losing Emmanuel Sanders makes their WR core worse. They have some exciting guys in Deebo and Aiyuk, but they are not Emmanuel Sanders. I like Kittle to be the #1 target. I like him red zone. I like him when a big play is needed. The offense may be run heavy, but Kittle is the clear franchise guy for the 49ers. I took Kittle when my internet cut out as an auto draft in the second last year, and it worked out for me. Kittle is a mid-second pick, and again you just have to watch the waivers to make up for whatever position you didn’t take in the first.

#3 – Zach Ertz – Philadelphia

People are going to say that Goedert is going to take away from Ertz, I do not buy it. Or I do not buy that anyone below Ertz is as safe of a pick. I think Wentz is going to look around and realize that he has to be Tom Brady and check down a lot. No more hits for Wentz, and his playmakers are Miles Sanders (James White) and Zach Ertz (Gronk). If Wentz wants to succeed, dip and dunk with your playmakers, and hope whoever is playing wide out can catch the deep ball when it’s there.

#4 – Darren Waller – Las Vegas

He is the one success story from the Raiders passing offense last year. Finished third overall last year. He has come into his own. I like him to continue for the Raiders. He could be the bust, but I don’t think you have that good of a season and then Carr forgets he’s his only ticket to success. I think they continue to work together while the Raiders still look for a wide receiver to call their #1.

#5 – Mark Andrews – Baltimore

Tight ends are so hit or miss. Andrews was a touchdown machine, with 10 last year. The options for Andrews are that he is the next Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, or he regresses. But if you are looking at tight ends, you have to think he’ll be involved a lot in the Ravens offense that does a lot of run, play action, drill the tight end type plays. I think his offense benefits him. I think Lamar has to throw more this year, and whatever regression Andrews has in touchdowns he should mitigate with some more targets/receptions/yards.

#6 – Austin Hooper – Cleveland

I like Hooper. I know Stefanski is going to go with a lot of 12 personnel. Baker needs a reliable target. Hooper can be that guy. Play action offense, hit the tight end. Hooper is very good, he did well with the Falcons. The biggest problem is going to be opportunity. I feel that he will not leave the field for the Browns, so when the opportunities do come up at least he is on the field. But you don’t go out and get Hooper if he’s not your guy, so I expect him to be.

#7 – Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles (Rams)

This is purely volume. Rams will throw the ball a lot. Higbee was 7^th in targets for Tight Ends, missed a game so that number can go up a conservative 5. But if you look at the Rams, Cooks is gone, and those receptions will go somewhere. Higbee should get more work. Also, Kupp took all the touchdowns last year. Woods or Higbee should benefit from that. Looking at the tight end ranks, I think Higbee being a solid option with some upside puts him as a good #7.

#8 – Evan Engram – New York (Giants)

This is a gamble, which is why I dropped him to #8, but he easily could sneak into the top 5. Engram missed half the season last year. But in theory if he’s healthy he is right around that #6-7 spot. Daniel Jones should settle in more, I like Saquon to keep the box stacked, and for Engram to be the guy to get some more looks in play action. I just think play action equals tight end success. I’m all in on these guys with good RBs and decent QBs. I think Jones plays more evenly this year, and you just have to hope Engram is healthy. Healthy Engram is like a healthy T.Y. just fun to watch. If you draft Engram, I would look to have a solid backup tight end just in case.

#9 – Mike Gesicki – Miami

Mike was right behind Higbee in targets. Fitzmagic is going to start the season and early in the year I like Gesicki to be a key part of the offense. Finishing 11^th last year, and with other teams having QB issues worse than Miami’s potential shift from Fitz to Tua, either way I like him. Cooks has to share his role with Emmanuel Sanders, I do not like that. Hunter Henry is going to have Tyrod or Herbert throwing to him, I don’t like it. Gesicki is likely a guy the Phins feel out to see if he can be a building block for this young core. I’m more confident in the Dolphins offense making plays for Gesicki more than the other tight ends left at this point.

#10 – Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay

You cannot have a top 10 without Gronk. I think everyone kind of likes his upside, but that’s all of Tampa Bay. How much upside can one team have? I think Brady throws it a lot with Arians. Gronk will get enough touches to stay relevant. I think he has a Travis Kelce role, lot more routes less blocking. With a freak athletic specimen like Gronk, a year off might do the body some good. For those reasons I have to have Gronk in the top ten.

There are some big names that missed the list. Jared Cook just has too much competition and if I think Mikey T does well and Kamara bounces back, and Sanders is around, where is Jared Cook? Hunter Henry, just the odd man out with Gronk coming back. I have to leave him out. Dallas Goedert, split back fields are bad, split tight ends are worse. I like Ertz to produce as he has, but Goedert was just a touchdown guy. Six touchdowns is a lot for the second tight end on a team. I don’t like that to happen. I like Miles Sanders to take some of those touchdowns. Noah Fant, Jannu Smith, Blake Jarwin all could be the guy to hit this year, but I can’t put them in my top ten. I really like Tyler Eifert, not on my team, I just want him to do well.

Now before we get into the rookie tight ends, I want to make one thing very clear. I am not thrilled about anybody in this group. I do not see any of these guys as being breakout stars. I think these guys and the tight end position, is really something you have to wait on to have value, so for dynasty purposes maybe one of these guys will click in three years. But, unlike some of my college shirts, some of these guys are good fits.

#5 –   Adam Trautman – New Orleans

This guy had really good numbers, but he played for Dayton. I like the offense for him, lot of passing so he just has to stick around and he’ll have his shot. He’s got the right size, so I just have to worry, like I worry about all of these tight ends, about blocking. Every single rookie tight end is going to need to learn how to block this year.

#4 – Dalton Keene – New England

Keene was ten picks behind Asiasi at the draft, so he’s just behind him in the rookie rankings. I have to think the Pats investing this much in tight end capital in the draft means they are going to try and work in their tight ends. One of these New England tight ends will turn out, so they are both worth the risk.

#3 – Harrison Bryant – Cleveland

Harrison was tight end of the year. David Njoku wants out of Cleveland, and now he is staying. I do not like that long term. That’s awkward for one of the parties. Bryant also has a decent shot of seeing some playing time because of the Browns offense. I think the Browns run a ton or at least line up like they will. So this can mean Bryant works in just to keep everyone fresh. Seeing as he has a shot at seeing the field, he has to be in the top 5.

#2 – Devin Asiasi – New England

I like Asiasi to start and be the guy for New England for years to come. If Keene was the guy they wanted, then they would have taken him at 91 and not 101. Without Gronk, the Pats need to address the tight end position. And they will with Asiasi.

#1 – Cole Kmet – Chicago

Everyone had Kmet as the top tight end during the draft, so I am just going to piggyback off of that. I am going to trust the experts. I think the fit is a mess. The Bears have 9 or so tight ends on their roster. One of them is Jimmy Graham who is too old, great career, but too old for fantasy or dynasty consideration. Kmet should step into a role next year if not this year. The Bears are a really unorganized team, and that’s partially Mitch Trubisky. When your QB is a problem everything becomes a problem.

That does it for tight ends and player rankings. Check out the Instagram @jonnydiiifootball for each team’s logo beginning on Monday. We are still looking for sponsor of our league/trophy, we just need something, merch or whatever for each one of the owners in exchange for being mentioned in each tweet and Instagram post as we mention the league name in each post. As for next week, we are closer to other drafts. I will give away my favorite value/sleepers, some combination of those picks. Until then I hope you and yours have a better tomorrow.

Let’s go!

JonnyDIII